The impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade on the cryptocurrency market is not static; it is a dynamic process that evolves from a "short-term emotional shock" to a "medium-term macro suppression," and may eventually develop into a "long-term structural divergence." Currently (April 12, 2026), under the deadlock in negotiations, the core period of negative effects is expected to last 1 to 3 months.

⏳ Analysis of Impact Stages

Short-term stage: Emotional shock (within 1-4 weeks)
The direct panic caused by the blockade will lead funds to withdraw from all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, due to safe-haven demand. During this phase, market volatility will be extremely intense, characterized by a "news-driven market," where any slight change in negotiations can cause sharp price swings within minutes. However, this is a short-term emotional impact—quick to arrive and quick to fade.

Medium-term stage: Macro liquidity suppression (1-3 months) — core impact period
This is the true core and main duration of the blockade's negative effects. The logical chain is very straightforward:

Blockade → Sustained high oil prices → Rising global inflation expectations → The Federal Reserve is forced to delay rate cuts (or even consider rate hikes) → Tightening global financial environment, reduced liquidity → Outflow of funds from high-risk, high-valuation cryptocurrency markets, with upward momentum stifled.

As long as the Strait remains blocked, the imported inflation pressure from high oil prices will persist, making it difficult for the Fed to initiate rate cuts. This macro liquidity suppression will run throughout the entire blockade period and serve as a "tightening spell" on the price upside potential of major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Based on the current deadlock, this suppression is expected to last at least through the second quarter.

Long-term dimension: Structural value reconfiguration (more than 6 months)
It is worth noting that the blockade has also spawned a potential long-term positive narrative. Iran has begun exploring the use of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin for settling some toll payments to evade sanctions. This creates a real-world use case for cryptocurrencies as "sanction-resistant cross-border payment tools." If this mode becomes entrenched, it could form a value support independent of traditional capital markets. However, this impact is structural and long-term, and will not offset the medium-term macro downside.

🔍 When will the impact end? Key observation points

The negative impact of the blockade on the market will end if at least one of the following conditions is met:

Geopolitical condition: The US and Iran reach an agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz is substantially reopened. This is the most direct signal. Once the blockade is lifted, oil prices will fall accordingly, global inflation concerns will ease, and the Federal Reserve will have room to cut rates, lifting the macro suppression on the crypto market.

Macroeconomic condition: US economic data (especially CPI) shows that high oil prices have not caused stubborn "second-round inflation." Even if the blockade continues, if subsequent data indicates inflation remains controlled, the Fed’s rate cut path will remain unaffected. In this case, markets will gradually "adapt" to high oil prices, and the liquidity environment for cryptocurrencies will improve.

Core conclusion: For investors, the most critical period to watch and be cautious of is the 1-3 months of macro liquidity suppression. During this time, the market may maintain high volatility and a low-trend oscillation pattern. Investment strategies should reduce leverage, stay patient, and closely monitor the emergence of the above two "unblocking" signals. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战