I believe that Bitcoin has likely already bottomed out. The latest price hovers around $73,310, which is suggested by the market signals shown during the sharp decline at the beginning of last month.

The key indicators are the 30-day implied volatility indices such as DVOL and BVIV. When Bitcoin dropped to around $60,000, these indicators surged above 90%. Historically, such a spike in volatility indicates extreme market fear and often coincides with the actual bottom. The same pattern was observed during the FTX collapse in November 2022 and the subsequent bottom formation.

The movement of the VIX index is also interesting. While Bitcoin's volatility peaked at the beginning of last month, the VIX rose several weeks later. This suggests that traditional financial markets may still be in the adjustment phase, but importantly, the VIX remains below the high levels seen during past crises. In other words, the overall market fear is beginning to subside.

On Wall Street, times when the VIX index significantly exceeds its long-term average are seen as buying opportunities for contrarian investors. The same logic has now been applied to Bitcoin's volatility. Since the introduction of spot BTC ETFs in 2024, Bitcoin markets have become increasingly correlated with traditional financial markets, and implied volatility has started functioning as a fear index.

Of course, relying on a single indicator is not sufficient to make a complete judgment. However, as history shows, the downtrend that started from the October high of $126,000 is likely already over.