CITIC Securities: Electricity consumption growth returns to normal, structural changes reshape demand

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-11T20:59:36+00:00

CITIC Securities research report predicts that in 2025, China's total social electricity consumption will increase by 5% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline of high-energy-consuming industries and structural factors, with the GDP electricity elasticity coefficient falling back to 1.0. Despite the slowdown in emerging high-end manufacturing industries, secondary industry electricity remains resilient, and tertiary industry electricity remains stable. It is expected that electricity growth will slightly rebound in the coming years.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-11 20:59:36

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CITIC Securities Research reports that in 2025, the electricity consumption of the entire society in China will increase by 5% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to 2024.
The electricity elasticity coefficient of GDP has fallen back to 1.0 for the first time since 2020, with structural factors being the main reason for the slowdown in electricity demand.
The prosperity of traditional high-energy-consuming industries continues to decline, and the growth rate of emerging high-end manufacturing industries has experienced a phased slowdown, but the overall electricity use in the secondary industry remains resilient;
Driven by the expansion of new energy vehicle charging and swapping services and computing infrastructure, the electricity demand in the tertiary industry has remained basically stable.
It is expected that the GDP electricity elasticity coefficient may rebound again, with the projected growth rates of total social electricity consumption from 2026 to 2028 being 5.4%, 5.2%, and 5.0%, respectively.

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