Good news! The US-Iran talks have brought the first positive signal, but be careful, Bitcoin is about to face a major crisis! Let’s take a look.

1. First, regarding the US-Iran talks, just now, the US agreed to unfreeze Iran’s overseas frozen assets, which is a very good sign of concession. Shuchun believes there is a very high probability that the talks will ultimately succeed! But, it seems Bitcoin has encountered some trouble...?
2. As shown in the chart, Bitcoin is now approaching a major trendline resistance, roughly around 75k. Once it starts to pull back from here, the correction could be quite large, and it might even mark the end of this rebound. After all, Bitcoin has been consolidating for over two months since dropping to 60k in early February, and time is running out for Bitcoin.
3. The last sharp decline was triggered before the January Bitcoin false breakout to a high of 98,000. If this time also has a false breakout, for example, if the talks lead to a spike to 77k, be cautious— it might not be a breakout but a guillotine. Even if it truly breaks out and rises, touching the nearby resistance zone could lead to a pullback, which is normal, and small profits can be taken.
4. So, going long on Bitcoin is fine, but do it early. We started buying on dips around 70k, and most of the profits have already been taken. When the price exceeds 74k, the risk-reward ratio becomes poor, and risks increase. Even buying on dips carries risks. So cherish this last safe period. If the pullback reaches 71,500–72k, I will consider adding another position. Beyond that, be cautious.
5. Additionally, the big loser ZEC is very close to our short target level. The ideal short price is 415, but starting to short at 400 is also acceptable. After such a big rally in the short term, there’s a lot of room for a correction later.
6. As for oil, it’s dropping again, and it looks like it’s not going to make it. Our short position at 115 can be exited on dips. As for Bitcoin long positions, we’ve gained quite a bit these days. After the ceasefire, we bought on dips multiple times and have already reached 73k. Congratulations to everyone!