🇺🇸 CPI (March): Inflation is accelerating, but the structure is different

Facts
• CPI (YoY): 3.3% ↑ (was 2.4%)
• CPI (MoM): 0.9% ↑ sharp increase
• Core CPI (YoY): 2.6% ↑ (was 2.5%)
• Core CPI (MoM): 0.2% = stable

⚪️

Key interpretation

1. Headline inflation (CPI) sharply accelerated
• 0.9% MoM = strong momentum
→ this is energy + food

⚪️

2. Core CPI — under control
• 0.2% MoM = no acceleration
• 2.6% YoY = moderate growth

→ “sticky inflation” is not accelerating

⚪️

Inflation structure

CPI increase = external factor
• oil (has already contributed to the rise)
• logistics
• geopolitics

Core = internal demand
• remains stable

⚪️

Macro logic

Right now, it’s not classic demand-driven inflation, but:

Cost-push inflation (cost inflation)

⚪️

What this means for the Federal Reserve

ФРС is looking at Core
• Core is stable → no reason to sharply raise rates

BUT:
• CPI is rising → political pressure is increasing

⚪️

Scenarios

1. Base case
• ФРС holds the rate
• waits for confirmation from Core

⚪️

2. Risk
• oil continues to rise
• CPI continues to grow
→ Core catches up

→ then:
rates could tighten again

⚪️

For markets

1. BTC / stocks
• positive:
→ Core is not accelerating
• negative:
→ CPI is rising

→ mixed signal

⚪️

2. USD
• moderately strong
(inflation is above expectations)

⚪️

3. Bonds
• upward pressure on yields

⚪️

Link to what we already have
• Europe is slowing down (PMI ↓)
• oil is rising
• МВФ допускает ужесточение

→ now adding:
• США are receiving an external inflation impulse

⚪️

Practical takeaway
• This is not an overheating economy
• This is:
→ resource costs rising

⚪️

Conclusion
• Inflation is rising, but:
→ not due to demand
→ due to external factors

→ key risk:
if it moves into Core — a new phase of tightening will begin