🔥Analyst: CPI Data May Be Ignored by the Market, US-Iran Negotiations Become a Key Variable

On April 10th, foreign exchange analyst Giuseppe Dellamotta stated that, given the market's focus on US-Iran negotiations and the widespread belief that March's inflation increase was caused by the war, the market is very likely to ignore today's data, as everything depends on the outcome of the US-Iran talks. There are significant disagreements about the overall CPI forecast, but the forecast for core CPI is more concentrated. The Federal Reserve is currently in a neutral stance but has opened the door for further tightening to prevent inflation expectations from rising or the war from lasting longer than expected. The market expects a 7 basis point easing space by the end of the year, implying that by 2026, there will be neither rate hikes nor rate cuts.