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Every good news comes with a bad news.
The market will never give you a clean, clear answer; it only gives you hope and fear at the same time on the same day.
Last night, it turned out to be already the seventh consecutive day of gains for the S&P 500. Seven straight days of green—last time this happened was in October last year.
The Dow Jones finally also turned positive this year, with a year-to-date gain of 0.25%. But think about what happened in between—clawing back above water is already quite difficult.
VIX closed at 19.49, down 7.37%, officially dropping below 20. The last time it was this low was February 27. The next day, the United States launched an airstrike on Iran, and since then, VIX hasn’t stayed above 20.
So this 19.49 means the market is saying: war, maybe, is about to be over.
Maybe, maybe, just maybe.