IEA warns: The intensity of the Gulf energy shock exceeds the sum of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is entering a "Black April"!

Ask AI · How do geopolitical conflicts trigger this unprecedented energy crisis?

The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, issued the sternest warning to date: the intensity of this Gulf energy shock exceeds the combined crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022, and the global economy is on the verge of a multidimensional supply collapse.

Birol, in an interview with France’s Le Figaro on Tuesday, disclosed that more than 75 energy facilities in the Gulf region have been attacked, with about one-third suffering serious damage.

He said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed throughout April, the amount of crude oil and refined products lost globally will reach twice that of March—“We are entering a ‘Black April.’”

What makes the destructive power of this crisis unprecedented is that its impact extends far beyond simply the oil sector; it simultaneously hits natural gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemical products, helium, and the global trade system. Birol made it clear that the root cause of this crisis is not energy itself, but geopolitics, which also leaves him deeply pessimistic about the outlook.

75 Energy Facilities Damaged, Long Road to Recovery

The IEA is currently carrying out real-time monitoring of oil fields, refineries, and energy terminals in the Gulf region.

75 facilities have been attacked and damaged, with more than one-third destroyed severely. Repair projects are expected to cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and will cause long-term disruptions to some energy flows, further tightening global supply and increasing transportation pressure on the Strait of Hormuz—an essential chokepoint.

Among the affected countries, recovery speeds vary significantly.

Birol pointed out that Saudi Arabia, backed by strong engineering capability and ample fiscal resources, is likely to recover relatively quickly; while Iraq’s situation is far more severe. With about 15 million people relying on oil and gas income to survive, the country has already lost about two-thirds of its oil revenue and is approaching the critical point of economic paralysis. He said:

“The Middle East has always been a reliable energy hub for the world. To restore it to that position will take a long time.”

Production Slashed in Half, Natural Gas Exports Completely Shut Down

In terms of production losses, Birol’s description is alarming. He said that the oil production in the relevant countries is currently only slightly above half of pre-war levels; as for natural gas, exports have stopped completely.

In terms of the timeline, the situation is rapidly worsening. “March was already very difficult, but April will be worse,” Birol said. “If the entire Strait remains closed throughout April, the crude oil and refined products we lose will be twice as much as in March.”

He used a seasonal metaphor: “April in the Northern Hemisphere usually means the arrival of spring, but now it may feel like the beginning of winter.”

Developing Countries Hit First, Asian and African Economies Face a Debt Crisis

Among the most severely impacted groups, Birol singled out developing countries as a focus.

He said that the combination of high oil prices, high gas prices, and high food prices will accelerate inflation, dealing a heavy blow to these countries’ economic growth. “I’m worried that many developing countries’ external debt will rise significantly,” he said.

As for the countries with higher exposure risks specifically, Birol named Asia’s oil-import-dependent economies, including South Korea, Japan, and also Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, while noting that African countries will also be hit severely.

The shared vulnerability of the above countries lies in limited fiscal maneuvering space, making it difficult to withstand sustained external energy price shocks.

Crisis Nature: Driven by Geopolitics, Recovery Path Full of Uncertainty

In the interview, Birol repeatedly emphasized that this crisis fundamentally differs from historical energy supply shocks. It is not the result of supply-demand imbalances within energy markets themselves, but the outcome of geopolitical conflict directly destroying physical infrastructure.

This characteristic means that its duration and recovery path depend to a high degree on how political conditions unfold, and market pricing mechanisms cannot play an effective role.

The pattern of synchronized multi-commodity disruption—oil and gas, food, fertilizers, petrochemicals, helium, and trade shipping—also subjects global supply chains to the most complex stress test ever.

For weeks, Birol has continued to convey a pessimistic outlook in multiple public interviews, and this phrasing is among the most warning.