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Tonight at 8:30 PM, focus on March CPI data:
Market expectations for the annual rate rise from 2.4% to 3.3%, indicating significant inflation pressure.
Oil prices retreating, tariffs rising, with bullish and bearish factors offsetting each other.
• CPI exceeds expectations → No rate cuts expected, possibly even further rate hikes, BTC likely to drop sharply
• CPI aligns with 3.3% → Initially volatile, then weakens, still generally bearish
• CPI below expectations → Rate cut expectations increase, BTC strengthens
Key points:
If Middle East tensions ease, April inflation may turn downward, and this wave of bearishness is likely the last dip.
Core strategy:
Do not bet on CPI data, focus on geopolitical developments.
Primarily short on rallies, strictly control position sizes.
Entry zones:
• BTC: 720–726 short
Target: 705–690
• ETH: 2200–2215 short
Target: 2160–2100