XAU Gold Market Analysis 2026.04.09

Gold accelerated its rally yesterday after the US-Iran conflict was temporarily eased, but no sustained momentum was observed afterward, which confirms the view that "the rise here is essentially just a rebound."
Specific historical events and news will only accelerate the market process, not change its trend.
If the rebound from 4100 corresponds to the blue decline segment shown in the chart, then it has already met the basic requirements, meaning the rebound is about to end or has already ended.
Subsequently, if it breaks below 4553, it confirms that gold will follow the blue route.
If this week/next week can break above 4910 (the blue zone shown in the chart), there is still a possibility of following the red route, and after the first wave of rebound from 4100 finds its end, if the pullback does not break 4553, there will be another wave of upward movement of the same level, possibly extending the entire rebound to near the historical high.
If it does not break below 4553 in the next two days, I personally lean toward there being at least one more rebound peak above 4860, with two key resistance levels to watch—around 4910-4930 and 5010-5025.
For those who cannot accept the idea that "trading is a game of probabilities and the market is constantly changing," I believe it will be difficult to succeed in trading, and sooner or later, they will fall into a trap due to rigid thinking patterns.