The Middle East conflict has spread to clothes, bread, trash bags... It's not just "oil" prices that are rising.

This article is reprinted from 【CCTV Finance】;

This round of Middle East tensions has lasted for more than a month. Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted passage, triggering a surge in energy prices and spreading into various production links, impacting global supply chains.

What impacts will the Middle East tensions have on fields such as energy, chemicals, logistics, agriculture, and finance? If the disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz becomes prolonged, what chain reactions will it trigger?

Strait of Hormuz blockade rips open a crude oil supply gap

Global energy markets become more volatile

Daily gap of 10 to 16 million barrels! Global energy “main artery” is in crisis

CCTV reporter Gao Yan: The Strait of Hormuz is the vital choke point for global oil supply. According to the International Energy Agency, or IEA, in its “Oil Market Report” released in March this year, in 2025 as a whole, the total volume of crude oil and refined products shipped daily through the Strait of Hormuz will be about 20 million barrels, accounting for 25% of the total global seaborne oil trade; at the same time, it also handles about 20% of global liquefied natural gas transportation, serving as a core route for natural gas exports from Gulf countries such as Qatar and the UAE.

In terms of flow, more than 70% of the oil passing through this strait is shipped to Asian markets. Japan and South Korea import crude oil via this route, accounting for 90% and 95%, respectively. The IEA estimates that, as of the end of March, the disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz has led to a daily global crude oil supply gap of 10 million to 16 million barrels.

Strategic petroleum reserves release cannot curb the rapid rise in international oil prices

Despite the fact that the IEA launched what it calls the largest strategic petroleum reserve release plan in history last month, with a total scale of over 400 million barrels, it still cannot curb the rapid rise in international oil prices. Brent crude and New York light crude futures are currently at elevated levels, up at least 60% compared with before the outbreak of the conflict. In Europe, the price of the Dutch TTF natural gas front-month contract recently reached as high as 69 euros per megawatt-hour, doubling compared with before the conflict.

CCTV reporter Gao Yan: In its latest research report, Fitch, an international credit rating agency, said that if the Middle East conflict continues until the end of June this year, the world economy will grow 0.8 percentage points less in full-year 2024. The report expects that the U.S. 2026 real GDP growth rate will fall from the recent forecast of 2.2% to 1.5%, and that the Eurozone’s economic growth rate this year will drop from the previous forecast of 1.3% to less than 1%. Emerging market countries will generally face challenges such as disrupted supply chains and rising debt risks.

Synthetic fiber prices rise, chemical fiber companies adjust production flexibly

China’s textile industry occupies a leading position globally. As synthetic fibers— the core raw material for the textile industry— have prices directly linked to crude oil, what impact has the outbreak of the conflict between the U.S. and Israel and Iran brought to domestic chemical fiber companies’ production?

CCTV reporter Yang Ziwei: With crude oil rising and driving up synthetic fiber prices, the overall price of polyester has risen by more than 10% over the past month.

A person in charge of a chemical fiber company in Shengze Town, Suzhou, Jiangsu said that the factory is currently running at full capacity, and orders on hand are scheduled 30 days out. However, because chemical fiber products cannot do without basic chemical raw materials derived from petroleum, every round of crude oil price increases will be reflected directly in the company’s production process.

From the overall market, synthetic fibers have risen to varying degrees. For example, a major polyester product category—polyester filament— increased from about 7,180 yuan per ton in March this year to 9,300 yuan per ton. Weekly gains for multiple varieties of nylon are more than 6%, and some models jumped by 2,000 yuan per ton in a single day.

Some companies say they will not easily cut production lines for now. First, downstream still has continued demand for placing orders; second, stopping operations and restarting entails greater losses. They are also offsetting the risk of price volatility through dynamic inventory management and by increasing procurement of different raw material varieties.

Raw material price fluctuations: fabric companies adjust quotations in real time

For textile companies, chemical fibers are the basic raw materials for producing fabrics, accounting for more than 60% of total fabric costs. In Keqiao, Zhejiang— the world’s largest textile distribution and trading hub— a merchant named Ma Yiyi from China Light Textile City told reporters that the company organizes production based on orders, and many contracts were signed before the year. Therefore, the losses stemming from raw material price increases for these orders can only be borne by the company itself.

Yang Wei, general manager of Zhejiang Jinchang Fabric & Art Co., Ltd., said that their company has not yet passed the price increases on to downstream customers. Instead, they are using approaches such as stockpiling, adjusting allocations, and shortening delivery lead times, while also accelerating research and development of differentiated fabrics to strengthen their bargaining power.

To cope with pressure from rising costs: textile and foreign trade enterprises adjust raw material and market layouts

The cost pressure caused by rising crude oil prices will gradually be passed down to downstream segments along the textile industry chain.

Lou Qiaoping, a merchant who sells sun-protective clothing at Yiwu International Trade City, said that the sun-protective clothing in the shop has a nylon content of over 85%. Recently, along with raw material price increases, they are also facing a supply shortage— many upstream factories cannot fully supply the goods for a number of orders.

Meanwhile, some companies producing new Chinese-style apparel say that their garment raw materials are mainly natural fibers, with a relatively smaller share of chemical fibers. This gives the companies some buffer space.

He Rong, general manager of Zhejiang Haining Zhongfang Fabric Technology Co., Ltd.: Some clothes use chemical fiber materials to create a three-dimensional “flower-spraying” effect. For one garment, the cost increase is about 5 to 10 yuan. If raw material prices keep rising, designers will change the chemical fiber materials directly into man-made silk.

The shadow of “raw material supply disruption” affects global chemical and high-end manufacturing industries’ nerves

At present, the impact of the Middle East geopolitical tensions is spreading step by step from the energy sector to the chemical and high-end manufacturing industry supply chains.

South Korea: Ethylene prices soar, trash bags become a scarce commodity

In Seoul, South Korea, in recent weeks, “Have you bought trash bags?” has become a somewhat helpless greeting among neighbors and within communities. Affected by the Middle East situation, trash bags that are essential for everyday life in South Korea have already become “hard-to-get” items in some supermarkets, and some are even sold out.

The underlying reason behind the rise in plastic bag prices in South Korea is that imports of naphtha have fallen sharply, causing the ethylene prices used to produce plastic bags to surge.

Many chemical companies worldwide announce price hike plans in succession

Under the cost pressure brought by this raw-material “supply disruption” crisis, many chemical companies around the world announced price hike plans one after another in March. U.S. chemical giant Dow Chemical increased its polyethylene price increase to twice the level previously announced. Germany’s Wacker Chemie raised prices across its organosilicon products in full, involving about 2,800 products.

Qatar helium-related facilities were attacked: spot prices have recently risen by more than 50%

In addition, the conflict in the Middle East also made an odorless, colorless inert gas—helium—a focus. Qatar supplies nearly one-third of the world’s helium demand. Due to attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities, helium production lines were damaged, and repairs will take years. Helium spot prices have recently risen by more than 50%.

Fertilizer prices rise: the “broken link” through the Strait of Hormuz hits global agriculture

The chain reaction caused by disruption to transport through the Strait of Hormuz not only puts pressure on global chemical-related industries, but also affects the production and prices of agricultural products worldwide through “fertilizer,” a key raw material for agricultural production.

The World Food Programme warns that if the conflict situation in the Middle East continues, the number of people whose food security is threatened this year may reach a historic high.

How can one strait move the price of bread?

In this incident, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, while also disrupting natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer production and the global seaborne fertilizer shipping routes. This creates a “triple disruption” of the raw material—production—transport chain, almost affecting all staple grain production. It will directly reduce crop yields, adjust planting structures, and then trigger “structural food inflation.”

Analysts generally expect that, against the backdrop of fertilizer supply and demand imbalance being difficult to resolve in the short term and geopolitical risks remaining, upward price pressure on grains such as corn and wheat will continue for some time into the future.

From halting operations for risk avoidance to re-pricing

The Strait of Hormuz crisis reshapes global logistics

The disruption to passage through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the Middle East situation has also dealt a severe blow to global logistics. This situation has already lasted for more than a month. The logistics industry has gradually shifted from the initial “risk-avoidance by shutdown” to “rerouting and diversion” and “re-pricing.”

As shipping routes and transport methods are continuously adjusted, this disruption is also driving a redistribution of risk and reward across the global logistics chain. As the Hormuz Strait crisis continues to intensify, the export of crude oil from the Middle East is hindered, and buyers in Asia and Europe are beginning to seek alternative supply sources more often in the United States and West Africa.

Insiders said: “For shipping, it’s like about 30% of the original normal oil shipments can’t get out—importing countries are urgently looking for oil elsewhere, but the ships aren’t able to reallocate in time.”

By contrast, air logistics is in a more complicated situation in this crisis. On the one hand, after sea routes are disrupted, some high-efficiency, high-value cargo is shifted to air freight, directly pushing up freight rates. On the other hand, although air freight prices rise, air logistics companies are also facing multiple pressures such as soaring fuel costs. With there still being no sign of an end to the regional conflict, the reconfiguration of this logistics chain is still ongoing.

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