Short-term Market Review: Ceasefire Sparks Extreme Divergence, Then Rapid Reversal

On April 8th, after the ceasefire news was announced, the global asset logic instantly shifted: oil prices plummeted violently, Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel, WTI once dropped nearly 20%, with a single-day decline hitting a six-year record; gold surged over 3%, COMEX gold prices broke through $4,800 per ounce, the US dollar index weakened, and the re-emergence of rate cut expectations drove gold prices soaring.

But the reversal came very quickly. Just one day after the ceasefire, Israel launched a large-scale air strike on Lebanon, Iran immediately announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz again, and stated that the basis for ceasefire negotiations had been destroyed. Subsequently, oil prices rebounded rapidly: on April 9th, WTI rose over 8% to re-establish above $100, Brent main contract quoted at $96.47 per barrel; spot gold fell to around $4,763.45. As of the Asia-Pacific early trading on April 10th, WTI opened slightly higher at $98.177, and spot gold was at $4,778.91.

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🛢️ Crude Oil: From "Panic Premium Reversal" to "Fundamental Hard Gap Pricing"

Core Driving Logic

Since the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively blocked, Gulf region oil exports have decreased by 14-15 million barrels per day, and the spot market shifted from an oversupply of about 2.5 million barrels per day to a shortage of 8-9 million barrels per day. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out that the spot shortage has become an established fact, and Brent oil price volatility center has risen from pre-conflict moderate levels to $100 per barrel.

The ceasefire triggered a concentrated reversal of the previously priced geopolitical risk premium, but supply recovery is far from a one-day process—oil field resumption takes 2-6 months, pipeline repairs require 3-12 months, and shipping recovery involves insurance, shipowner risk preferences, and other comprehensive factors. Historical experience shows that recovery speed often lags behind the easing of the situation itself.

New Oil Price Center and Future Direction

Most institutions believe that even if the geopolitical situation significantly eases, oil prices will find it difficult to return to the pre-conflict levels of $50-60. Guotai Tonghua expects the new price center after the conflict to be between $85-95 per barrel, with core logic including: the psychological blockade of the strait is difficult to解除, global inventories are at low levels and need replenishment, and OPEC+ actively reducing production to lock in high oil prices.

The tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifies: on the upside, the risk of the ceasefire agreement being repeatedly torn up remains, with events like the blockade of the Mandeb Strait and the US military dispatching ground troops potentially causing oil prices to surge again; on the downside, expectations of OPEC+ increasing production and slowing global economic growth suppressing demand also exert downward pressure. Xinhua Finance’s summary of "rising sharply—plunging—re-bidding" encapsulates the current typical characteristics of the oil market. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战