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🔥US CPI Preview: Iran Premium First Included, Traders Increase Hedging Against Inflation Risks
April 10th, tonight's US CPI data may first significantly reflect the Iran premium caused by soaring oil prices. The market expects this monthly increase to hit a nearly four-year high, with inflation once again becoming a core variable in asset pricing. In the bond market, traders have already positioned themselves for risk hedging, heavily increasing options positions that bet on the rise of the 5-year and 10-year US Treasury yields. JPMorgan survey shows that current net long positions in the spot market have fallen to a three-week low. On the macroeconomic front, strong non-farm payroll data alleviates growth concerns, refocusing the market on energy cost shocks. Year-to-date, Brent crude oil has risen nearly 60%, further reinforcing inflation expectations. Rate expectations are tightening in tandem. Currently, the market prices only about a 30% chance of a 25 basis point cut in 2026,…