Tesla ( TSLA.US ) Automotive business under pressure becomes the "new normal," the market no longer only watches sales figures, just waiting for Musk's "next PowerPoint" presentation.

Yicai Finance has noted that although Elon Musk is very eager to bet Tesla(TSLA.US)'s future on AI, he still needs to raise funds for these ambitions by selling cars — and the automotive business is becoming increasingly challenging.

According to surveys of analysts, Tesla may have delivered about 372,160 vehicles in the past three months. While this number has increased by approximately 11% compared to the same period last year, it remains at a relatively low level for the company’s recent quarterly totals.

Earlier last year, sales were affected by multiple factors: first, strong resistance triggered during Musk’s tenure in the Trump administration; second, production pauses caused by updates to Tesla’s most popular model, the Model Y.

Analysts expect that sales will fall well below the peak quarterly levels of recent years, when Tesla’s deliveries approached 500k vehicles.

As global demand for electric vehicles weakens and the U.S. market currently lacks federal tax incentives for plug-in cars, Tesla is increasingly shifting its focus to artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and robotics. Slowing sales growth may become Tesla’s “new normal.”

Tesla’s deliveries may be slow at the start of this year

Tesla is also gradually phasing out low-production luxury electric models, the Model S and Model X, further shrinking its increasingly aging product lineup, while global competitors continue to grow.

Gene Munster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, said, “If they can prove that data remains stable without tax credits — at least in terms of deliveries — I think that’s a win.”

Munster pointed out that investors will focus on this period’s data to gauge how demand is doing without these tax incentives.

Earlier this year, Tesla’s sales in Europe stabilized, though still at low levels. In the Chinese market, there was a significant improvement. According to preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), exports from its Shanghai factory surged 91% in February.

Enthusiasm for Musk’s future business plans once drove Tesla’s stock to an all-time high in December, but it retreated some of its gains earlier this year.

Investors are increasingly tending to ignore vehicle sales data and instead focus on signs of progress in Tesla’s autonomous taxi (Robotaxi), Cybercab, and Optimus robot projects. As long as the electric vehicle business can remain stable or grow modestly enough to support Musk’s growing AI ambitions, it remains beneficial.

Garrett Nelson, senior vice president of stock research at CFRA, said he is watching whether the company can deliver on its ambitious products and timelines. He is also observing Tesla’s plans to increase capital expenditures.

“The focus isn’t on delivery volume but on the bigger picture, such as the launch of Terafab and the ongoing ‘spending spree’ at Tesla,” Nelson said. “Concerns about this explosive spending are indeed affecting market sentiment toward the company.”