Jinyao Pharmaceutical Industry hits the seventh board. What is the expected outlook for tomorrow?

1. Today’s Market

Today, the broader market is up 0.26 percentage points. There are 3,899 red-listed stocks, 1,450 green-listed stocks. The total成交量 for the whole day is 1.6 trillion.

Last Friday’s “ice point” data: only the communication sector strengthened against the trend. During the holiday, the news backdrop was relatively more favorable, and the overseas US stock market rebounded. Today, the broader market surged in the morning and then fell back by the close—an overall rebound day.

The communication sector that strengthened against the trend last Friday strengthened again today at the opening: at the opening auction, 汇源通信 received a huge buy order that locked the direction with a one-word limit-up. 新能泰山 also opened and immediately went to a one-board limit-up. After the open, 鼎信通讯, 华脉科技, 华盛昌, and others hit limit-ups. The sector continued to strengthen today—communication has been strong for two consecutive days. For tomorrow, a normal differentiation is expected.

What strengthened during today’s trading was the chemicals sector. Within the sector, stocks with limit-ups included 东岳硅材, 亚邦股份, 赞宇科技, 醋化股份, 合盛硅业, 鼎际得, 保利联合, and others. However, there was no high-board. More than anything, the sector was an oversold rebound.

In addition, the computing power (算力) sector also strengthened during the day. 寒武纪 surged higher. There are quite a few sectors rebounding today, but at the moment, besides the medical and communication sectors, other sectors are more like rebounds.

On the high-board front, 津药药业 advanced to seven boards, which was more than expected. More than anything, it’s funds forming a “closed circle” for warmth. It’s already not carrying the sector. The last time 华电辽能 stood on eight boards was a sector-driven rebound (sector leading the stock). Currently, 津药药业 doesn’t have sector support. The probability of it cutting the board tomorrow is high. It’s a feast for those holding the筹码.

Overall, today was a rebound day. Last week, we had ice points for Thursday and Friday in a row—when things reach an extreme, they reverse. Judging from 津药药业 getting to seven boards today, sentiment is turning better. With the communication sector as a “resonance” direction with the broader market, there’s a possibility it turns into a small cycle. After that, you can be more积极.

Keep an eye on 华盛昌 that we watched last Friday. Today, when it surged, we canceled the watch. Today we newly watched 国晟科技, XX. Mainly these are trend stocks. For now, trend stocks still have relatively decent risk-reward—small losses, big wins, which is exactly a good risk-reward trade. Focusing on risk-reward in advance usually pays off greatly.

Focus on the core in the big cycle, focus on first boards in the small cycle. For disorderly rotation cycles, stay in cash or respond with trend stocks. Do a good job each day on post-trade review, do a three-day static outlook in advance, do a three-day dynamic outlook at the next day’s opening auction. Day after day like this, your forecasts will become more and more accurate.

In the stock market, what’s always most important is to follow the trend. Follow the broader market’s trend, follow the sector’s trend. At the same time, during the main decline period, control drawdowns. In cycles with a good money-making effect, do more. In cycles with a bad money-losing effect, restrain your hand and do less. That way, each cycle becomes big wins with small losses—stable compounding. You must never pursue big wins every single day. Whatever node the cycle is at, do what matches that stage—that’s always the most important. Read this paragraph several times; it will benefit you endlessly. Wishing everyone to catch the weekly rhythm, set new highs in your account every week, make progress by a little each day—like “turning sesame into blossoms,” step by step higher.

2. Stock-by-Stock Comments

3. 津药药业 — innovation pharma sector. It’s a transitional theme that emerged during the power sector’s fade last week. Today’s huge volume and rally to seven boards is extremely beyond expectations. But currently it isn’t carrying a sector; more than anything, it’s funds forming a closed circle for warmth. In a weak market, “weird stocks” appear. That’s exactly the environment in which 津药药业 has moved. The previous time was 华电辽能. 华电辽能 reached a height of eight boards. Tomorrow, 津药药业 will also face a test. From the perspective of sector support, since 津药药业 doesn’t have sector backing, the probability of cutting the board tomorrow is high. But from the “funds forming a closed circle” perspective, since 津药药业 is the only “closed-circle” stock, there is still expectation for tomorrow. If you don’t have an early position, you can only watch from the sidelines. It’s a feast for those holding the筹码. After the close, pay attention to whether it gets hit by JG. Generally, a leader stock dies because of JG. So after the close, keep an eye on the news and developments. Even if you don’t specifically follow it, you should still include it in your watchlist. Right now it’s the high-level sentiment benchmark.

4. 汇源通信, 新能泰山 — communication sector. In the environment of an ice-point for sentiment last Friday, the communication sector strengthened against the trend. Today the broader market rebounded, and the communication sector is the direction you can’t avoid. At today’s opening auction, 汇源通信 received a large order and locked the direction with a one-word limit-up. 新能泰山 also opened and immediately hit a one-board limit-up. In the back rows, other first-board limit-ups also appeared, such as 通鼎互联 and multiple others. Today, the sector is strengthened—two straight days of sector strength. Normally, tomorrow is expected to bring divergence. 汇源通信’s strength is greater than 新能泰山’s. If there is divergence tomorrow, 汇源通信 will most likely hold up strongly for another day. The normal expectation is that 新能泰山 will cut the board tomorrow, and 汇源通信 will cut the board the day after tomorrow. If 汇源通信 cuts the board, the sector will begin to fade. Therefore, you can still focus on it for tomorrow, but you need to avoid risk the day after tomorrow.

5. 法尔胜 — lithium battery sector. It has been moving strongly in a trend lately. Last Friday it even avoided extreme abnormal trading. It sidestepped serious abnormal movement of 200% over 30 days. Today, at the opening auction, it delivered a limit-up. This shows that funds still look at stocks that can avoid abnormal trading with extra confidence. The main reason is that JG’s power is too strong. 法尔胜 is a fairly typical recent case: by sidestepping abnormal trading, it received an extremely strong positive follow-through. After that, the market will most likely play the “avoid abnormal trading” approach. Like last time 华电辽能 got into JG—on the next day, it immediately weakened. Under a strict JG background, funds are still relatively afraid of JG. This positive follow-through still has fairly constructive meaning here.

6. Tomorrow’s Outlook

Last Thursday and Friday, sentiment stayed at continuous ice points. Today it rebounded. At the moment, the broader market index is bouncing between 3800 and 3900 points. In the near term, the probability of breaking below 3800 directly is not high. The current pattern of the broader market is a “churning and bottoming” formation. For the time being, focus on individual stocks rather than the index.

On the themes: the communication sector has strengthened for two consecutive days. Tomorrow is normally expected to bring divergence. The communication sector is a direction that resonates with the index. Tomorrow the normal expectation is: weaken the losers and keep the strong ones. The day after tomorrow, a major divergence is likely. Tomorrow you can still watch for one more day, but the day after tomorrow you need to pay attention to risk—people should make sure they get the rhythm right.

As for today’s rebound in sectors like chemicals and computing power, just treat them as a rebound. The sustainability is uncertain.

Tomorrow, continue to focus on the communication sector. Other directions can be ignored. Everyone can also comment on how to participate tomorrow. The more you comment, the more reasonable your market forecast will be. Wishing everyone tomorrow continues to catch the right rhythm, and your account hits new highs.

If this helps, please like, add oil, and support—support, support. Everyone’s strong support is the ongoing driving force for this blogger’s updates. Wishing everyone the very best, getting better and better.