Tomorrow at 8 a.m., the deadline for the Iran ceasefire agreement is up, but judging from the positions taken by all sides so far, the chances of reaching an agreement are low. What the market cares more about is whether Trump will live up to his promise of a “comprehensive strike.”

If there really is to be an attack, how would it be carried out? Most likely it would involve limited military action—such as strikes targeting specific facilities—rather than a full-scale war. Because the cost of a full-scale all-out war is too high, Trump also needs to weigh the options.

The market reaction in different scenarios is also very clear:

- If war breaks out: crude oil rises, while gold and Bitcoin fall.
- If no attack for now: gold and Bitcoin rebound on the upside, and crude oil pulls back.

From the current outlook, the odds of a strike are somewhat higher. Iran is unlikely to accept the existing terms, but Trump also may not dare to truly launch a full-scale war. More likely, it would be a “symbolic strike”—preserving deterrence without completely letting the situation spiral out of control. Otherwise, his warnings in the Middle East in the future would no longer be taken seriously.

So in these two days, the market has been very honest: Bitcoin doesn’t dare to rise, crude oil holds up against downside pressure, and the rebound in gold is weak. Everyone is waiting—for the final deadline tomorrow to land and for the situation to become clear. #特朗普再下最后通牒