Bitunix Analyst: Inflation Reshapes Policy Path, Energy Supply Shock Spreads, BTC Maintains Volatile Pattern

On April 7, amid the escalating conflict in Iran and significant restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for a policy shift within the year began to show clear signs of wavering. Federal Reserve officials have unusually emphasized that ‘inflation takes precedence over employment,’ indicating that the current policy framework has shifted from a previous ‘balanced dual mandate’ to a unilateral defense under supply shocks. Meanwhile, the White House’s attempt to use productivity gains from AI as a potential reason for interest rate cuts actually reflects internal policy disagreements regarding future inflation paths, rather than a genuine maturity of easing conditions. From a policy and international response perspective, the IMF has clearly stated that the world is entering a phase of ‘high inflation, low growth.’ The contraction in energy supply is not limited to oil and gas but is starting to permeate fertilizers, transportation, and industrial chains, giving inflation a stronger stickiness. Even if short-term conflicts cool down, the supply recovery cycle will still be prolonged, indicating that inflationary pressures are unlikely to decline rapidly, further reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tightening stance. Cross-market capital behaviors have begun to reflect this shift. Expectations for interest rate cuts have been postponed, and service sector prices are rising again, keeping real interest rate expectations high and suppressing the valuation basis for risk assets. At the same time, rising energy prices resonate with geopolitical risks, leading funds to favor defensive and cash flow assets over high-volatility risk exposures. Returning to the structure of the cryptocurrency market, BTC is currently operating within a clear liquidity range. The upper level around $69,800 has formed a high-density short liquidation and passive liquidity accumulation zone, representing a typical pressure area and the main resistance point for recent rebounds; only if it can effectively stabilize above this level will it indicate that the market is willing to take on risk again. On the downside, there is accumulation of long liquidations and liquidity support in the $66,000 to $65,000 range, forming a short-term defensive zone, which, if breached, will trigger a chain reaction of deleveraging. Current prices are repeatedly testing the upper edge but have not been able to sustain, indicating that capital remains conservative under macro uncertainty, preferring to harvest liquidity within the range rather than pushing for a trend breakthrough.