UK government research shows: Space-based solar power could become competitive by 2040

(Source: epintl at electric power international)

The latest research indicates that, with investment and policy support, small-scale space-based solar power (SBSP) is expected to achieve commercialization. The electricity produced in orbit may even participate in the UK’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) program in the future. Analysis points out that launch cost is the most significant factor affecting its levelized cost of electricity (LCOE).

A feasibility study commissioned by the UK government shows that, by 2040, exporting electricity from space solar power stations to Earth may be economically competitive.

The levelized cost of electricity for small space solar power stations in orbit is expected to drop significantly over the next decade—from 0.335–0.595 pounds sterling per kWh in 2030 to 0.087–0.129 pounds sterling per kWh in 2040. The report argues that this cost level would put space solar on par in competitiveness with technologies such as nuclear power and tidal energy.

The technical pathway for space-based solar power is: convert direct current into radio-frequency signals for transmission to Earth, and then have ground-based receiving antennas convert it back into direct current. Although R&D companies say this technology can help bridge the generation gap of intermittent renewable energy on the ground, high economic barriers such as costly orbital launch remain the key challenge today.

The UK government’s feasibility study assessed the viability of small-scale validation systems that could be deployed in the 2030s of this century. It modeled a reference design using 2024 parameters (receiving stations located in Aberdeen in the UK, Edmonton in Canada, and Sapporo in Japan) and compared multiple existing design options.

The study indicates that solar panels in a highly elliptical orbit could provide the UK with an average of 95.7% of electricity needs each year. If a battery energy storage system is configured on the receiving-antenna side, it could even enable continuous power supply.

The key to lowering the levelized cost of space solar power is launch cost. The study shows that launch is the most important factor affecting cost, accounting for more than 50% of the difference in levelized cost of electricity. The cost estimates in the study are based on the expected performance parameters of the large launch vehicle “Starship” that SpaceX is developing.

In the UK government’s study, the orbital launch cost in the optimistic scenario for 2040 is set at 550 pounds sterling per kilogram, and 770 pounds sterling per kilogram in the conservative scenario. The model also assumes that the “Starship” rocket will provide at least 100 tons of payload transport capability to low Earth orbit, and that its launch cost will decline linearly by 30% between 2030 and 2040.

A significant decline in the benchmark return rate (the minimum return rate investors require to accept a project) is also expected to help reduce costs. The research projects that this return rate will fall from 20% in 2030 to 9.1% in 2040, mainly due to improvements in technology and enhanced commercial viability.

The report notes that market opportunities for small-scale space solar may include participating in UK Contracts for Difference auction rounds. The technology is considered compatible with this government support mechanism. Auxiliary services are viewed as a lower-revenue opportunity, but the report nonetheless outlines global market opportunities for projects centered on the UK, including supplying power to island nations, steel production, mining, data center operations, and green hydrogen manufacturing. The report believes that strong support from both the public and private sectors will be indispensable for the first batch of small-scale systems before 2030, but by 2040, the demand for such support may drop significantly.

The research suggests that developing small-scale space solar could drive larger-scale systems to become more feasible by improving technical performance and lowering the costs and risks of large power plants. Model predictions show that deploying small-scale power stations could reduce the levelized cost of electricity of the first large demonstration power station by 16% to 27%.

A space solar research study commissioned by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) aims to evaluate the economic and technical feasibility of deploying small-scale systems. This is mainly based on the fact that small systems have lower upfront investment barriers and are expected to reduce risk for the construction of future large-scale systems.

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