The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing high volatility driven by geopolitical sentiment. Strategies should be defensive, prioritizing risk control, and avoiding chasing gains or panic selling.

1. Macro Background: News-driven, both bulls and bears are trapped

Recently, market fluctuations have been entirely dominated by the US-Iran geopolitical situation, exhibiting a "news-driven market" characteristic:

· Sharp Fluctuations: The expectation of a ceasefire briefly pushed Bitcoin (BTC) above $70,000, but the risk of negotiations breaking down quickly triggered a pullback.
· High Volatility: Short-term long and short liquidations are frequent, with over $300 million liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, making trading extremely difficult.

2. Key Levels and Capital Flow of Mainstream Coins

· Bitcoin (BTC):
· Range: Currently fluctuating widely between $66,000 and $72,500.
· Key Levels: Strong resistance above $70,000-$72,000; short-term support at $68,000; if broken or tested, may drop to $66,000 or lower.
· Capital: Last week, ETF net outflows reached $287.8 million, indicating cautious institutional sentiment.
· Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL):
· ETH: Showing relative weakness, trading in the range of $1,950 - $2,300, weaker than BTC.
· SOL: Focus on the $78-80 support zone; if broken, may trigger further selling pressure.

3. Trading Strategy Recommendations

Given the high uncertainty at present, the following strategies are advised:

· Be cautious and keep positions small: Avoid heavy bets before clear news emerges. Use a range trading approach of buying low and selling high, rather than chasing breakouts.
· Watch for potential turning points:
· If tensions ease: Bitcoin may rebound quickly to test resistance at $72,000-$75,000.
· If conflict escalates: Beware of another sharp decline, with strong support around $60,000-$62,000.
· Focus on structural opportunities: Short-term trading is challenging; consider long-term narratives such as RWA (Real-World Assets), AI, and compliant DeFi, waiting for opportunities after this correction.

4. Summary

In the short term, monitor sentiment; in the medium term, observe ETF capital flows; in the long term, watch for regulatory developments and easing of monetary policy expectations. Keep positions flexible and hedge risks accordingly.

This information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Market volatility is intense; please be sure to manage risks carefully.
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