The "final deadline" for US-Iran negotiations approaches, Asian stock markets give up gains, oil prices rise, and gold fluctuates within a narrow range.

With the deadline set by President Trump for Iran ceasefire talks arriving Tuesday evening in U.S. Eastern Time, global market sentiment tightened again: international oil prices fluctuated higher, U.S. stock index futures fell, and Bitcoin erased the gains from the previous day. Limited signals of a ceasefire and the ongoing risk of escalation grappled with each other, leading investors to largely choose to wait and see.

According to an April 6 report by Xinhua News Agency citing The Wall Street Journal in the United States, mediators felt pessimistic that Iran would “yield” before the final deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and hopes for a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement were “fading.” The report said some U.S. officials stated that before Trump’s U.S. Eastern Time 7:00 p.m. April 7 deadline arrives, the positions of the U.S. and Iran are “too far apart to narrow.”

Brent crude rose 1.2% to above $110 per barrel, but it had already swung back and forth many times between gains and losses; U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4%; early trading in Asian markets saw gains narrow to 0.5%, led by technology stocks—seen as a relatively smaller segment impacted by the conflict in the Middle East; Bitcoin fell more than 2% to about $68,800, giving back all the gains from the previous day’s brief breakthrough of $70,000.

Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, warned that, “The market currently definitely hasn’t fully priced in the worst-case scenario,” and that the economic shock caused by this war could further worsen. eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert said, “This is a market entirely driven by headlines”—news about the ceasefire framework lifted stocks and pulled oil prices back, then comments from Trump threatening to destroy Iran’s infrastructure reversed sentiment again, exposing the market’s fragility in full.

• U.S. stock index futures fell 0.4%; European stock index futures point to a flat open;
• Early gains in Asian markets narrowed to 0.5%, led by technology stocks—seen as a relatively smaller segment impacted by the conflict in the Middle East;
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1 basis point to 4.34%;
• Japan’s 10-year yields fell 2.5 basis points to 2.400%;
• The dollar spot index was little changed;
• Brent crude oil futures gained 0.4% on the day to $110.19 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 2.8% to $115.31.
• Gold traded in a narrow range near $4,645 per ounce, down more than 10% cumulatively since the outbreak of the conflict;
• Bitcoin fell more than 2% to about $68,800, giving back all the gains from the previous day’s brief breakthrough of $70,000.

Oil prices: the Strait of Hormuz steers the market’s direction

Brent crude has gained about 50% cumulatively since the conflict broke out at the end of February. The Strait of Hormuz, as a key passage for Middle East oil exports, has remained the central focus of the market. Trump insists that any ceasefire agreement must include specific arrangements to keep this waterway open, a position that further constricts the room for negotiations.

The war has caused the deaths of thousands of people and triggered the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. As the conflict increasingly loses public support within the United States, consumers face pressure from average gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, and Trump has never found a way out to end the conflict.

In a report, Nick Twidale, Chief Market Strategist at AT Global Markets, wrote: “Market participants will remain highly sensitive to every step of progress in the Middle East situation. This is still the primary driver of current sentiment, and the bias currently seems to be downward.”

Equities and FX: volatility is moderate, with both sides deadlocked

Global stock markets have been whipsawing between hopes for a ceasefire and fears of escalation. According to a Wall Street Insight article, Trump set 8:00 p.m. April 7 U.S. Eastern Time as the final deadline. The report said a plan for a large-scale joint airstrike by the U.S. and Israel on Iran’s energy facilities is already prepared, waiting for Trump’s order. Iran also issued a final ultimatum, insisting it will never back down and will escalate domestic mobilization. Although mediators have not given up, Pentagon officials are skeptical of Trump and pointed out, “If the president thinks an agreement is about to be reached, he may delay any extension.”

European stock index futures point to a steady opening; gold has been trading in a narrow range near $4,645 per ounce, down more than 10% cumulatively since the outbreak of the conflict; and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1 basis point to 4.34%.

J.P. Morgan’s G10 currency one-month volatility indicator rose 17 basis points to 7.98% on Monday, but it remains within the recent range, showing that market worries about the final deadline are moderate and have not yet reached a more dramatic level.

Mark Cranfield, an Asia strategist at Bloomberg MLIV, said that risk sentiment tightened clearly on Tuesday: U.S. stock index futures turned lower while oil futures rose. Investors are waiting in a familiar fragile posture ahead of Trump’s latest deadline, but he also noted that the downturn in Asian markets may not necessarily carry over into U.S. trading hours. Hideyuki Ishiguro, Chief Strategist at Nomura Asset Management, said that volatility indices for Japan, the United States, and Europe have fallen back from their peaks, suggesting that “the market may have already, to a considerable extent, priced in these risks.”

Bitcoin: risk assets pull back, while institutional inflows provide support

On Tuesday in Asian trading, Bitcoin fell more than 2% to about $68,800. Ether in the same period fell more than 2.8%, with the rally from the previous day’s brief breakthrough of $70,000 running out of steam. Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said Bitcoin sentiment is “still bearish in the near to medium term.” The market is in a wait-and-see mode: “Longs lack enough confidence to sustain the breakout, and shorts also cannot form a decisive bearish breakdown.”

Even so, there are signs of some resilience at the institutional level: the U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETF recorded $471.3 million in net inflows on Monday, after net inflows of $22.30 million in the prior week. Since early March, Bitcoin prices have largely been trading in a range of $65,000 to $75,000. Since the heavy selloff in October last year, overall crypto market activity has remained relatively weak.

Macroeconomic data: inflation readings are the next key focus

While closely tracking geopolitical developments, the market is also waiting for this week’s key inflation data. Data released on Monday showed that the pace of expansion in U.S. services slowed in March; the employment decline was the largest since 2023; and input prices accelerated somewhat—reflecting a mix of slowing growth and inflationary pressure.

Mark Hackett of Nationwide said that even though investors are currently putting most of their attention on geopolitical risks, macro data continues to point to a “resilient economy and still constructive earnings outlook,” and this underlying tone should not be ignored.

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