ShouChuang Futures: Aluminum Oxide Supply Surplus Worsens, Prices Continue to Face Downward Pressure

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-07T06:28:07+00:00

UAE Global Aluminum assessment shows that it will take up to 12 months for primary aluminum production to recover. Aluminum production in the Middle East has been further damaged, leading to an oversupply of alumina. Domestically, 3 million tons of alumina capacity will be released in April. Alumina prices continue to decline and have fallen below 2,700 yuan. Although spot prices are supported by costs and remain firm, it is expected that more capacity will be released in the future, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand in the market.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-07 06:28:07

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Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). According to the latest assessment results, a full recovery of primary aluminum production may take up to 12 months at most. Damage to Middle Eastern aluminum production has further intensified the alumina surplus. Meanwhile, in China, April will see the release of 3 million metric tons of alumina production capacity. Market sentiment is pessimistic. Today, alumina fell again, opening weak and then continuing lower; it has already fallen below 2,700 yuan, with a drop of more than 2%. Currently, the alumina spot side is holding up firmly, mainly because rising energy costs have kept bauxite prices rising continuously, providing some cost support. However, if newly added alumina capacity continues to be released in the later period, spot liquidity will become even looser. Supply in the south has already shown improvement; it is expected that the spot side will most likely weaken again, a new balance will be reestablished, and the decline in futures is in line with expectations. (CITIC Futures)

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