2026 Hog Cycle "The Toughest Year" Breeding Companies Employ Multiple Strategies to "Overwinter"

The Daily Economic News AI Express: The domestic live hog futures’ main contract price fell to 9,370 yuan per ton on April 3, hitting a new low since its listing. Meanwhile, in the spot market, the average ex-farm price for hogs has dropped to below 10 yuan per kilogram, which is already the lowest point in more than ten years. In the view of industry insiders, 2026 will be the “most difficult year” among the recent pig-cyle rounds. Against this backdrop, since 2026, the government has carried out two batches of central government pork reserves purchases to support hog prices. A Securities Times reporter, based on interviews from multiple parties, learned that current hog prices have already fallen below the industry’s average cost line, and producers are generally trapped in loss-making conditions. What is different from previous rounds is that during this downturn in hog prices, the industry’s capacity reduction has progressed relatively slowly, and market clearing will still take time. Most analysts believe that before production capacity is materially reduced, hog prices will most likely remain in a low-range, choppy trading pattern in the short term. Facing the trough of the cycle, breeding and farming enterprises are “getting through the winter” by cutting costs and improving efficiency, optimizing their financial structures, expanding overseas markets, and other measures to enhance their ability to withstand risks. (Securities Times)

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