This Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. initial jobless claims data for the week ending March will be released. As an important leading indicator before non-farm payrolls, it will directly impact short-term market sentiment in the crypto space.

Currently, overall market liquidity is moderate. If the data exceeds expectations, prices are likely to experience sharp surges or drops, with rapid spikes and high volatility, but limited sustainability. The risk of chasing gains or panic selling is very high.

The core logic for Bitcoin remains unchanged: high interest rate expectations, ETF capital flows, halving anticipation, and geopolitical safe-haven sentiment. These main themes won't be completely altered by a single unemployment data release. Jobless claims are more of a short-term emotional catalyst, likely to cause intense short-term fluctuations but unlikely to directly reverse Bitcoin’s existing major trend.

In terms of trading strategy, it’s more suitable for short-term quick entries and exits. Heavy bets on a one-sided trend are not recommended.

Key support level: 68,000
Key resistance level: 70,000

Regardless of whether the market moves up or down after the data release, as long as the support isn’t broken convincingly or resistance isn’t surpassed, it’s best to view the market as range-bound.