Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update: On April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm payroll report on Friday, showing the country added 178k new jobs—far above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised downward further, from the initially estimated decline of 92k to a decline of 133k. Against the backdrop of decreased odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided near-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the “quick decisive” script Trump aimed for is now heading toward collapse. The market’s more critical tests are also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, and inflation could run wild. Some people have warned, “This is not a time to trade.” Below are the key points markets will focus on in the new week (all in Beijing time): Monday 22:00—U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00—U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35—2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speak on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00—Federal Reserve releases minutes from its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30—U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE inflation y/y, U.S. February personal spending m/m, U.S. Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter q/q (final), U.S. Q4 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-over-quarter q/q (final), U.S. Q4 core PCE inflation annualized q/q (final), and U.S. February core PCE inflation m/m; Friday 20:30—U.S. March not seasonally adjusted CPI y/y/core CPI y/y, and U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI m/m/core CPI m/m. Friday 22:00—U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectations initial reading, U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index initial reading, and U.S. February factory orders m/m (source: PANews)