Guotai Junan Futures: Changes in geopolitical conflicts may lead to a significant increase in intraday volatility in methanol trading.

In the near term, geopolitical conflict uncertainty is relatively high. In the Middle East, methanol supply is still operating under a sharply reduced-volume pattern, and domestic methanol port prices in China are expected to trade with a firm bias. From a fundamentals perspective, the domestic methanol fundamental outlook is neutral to slightly strong. At present, the decline in imported cargoes from the Iran region that was expected has been gradually realized, and April methanol port inventories are expected to undergo continuous drawdowns. Overall, due to increased instability in energy supply in the Iran region, methanol is still driven by a supply contraction mechanism led by Middle East geopolitics. Going forward, the main focus will be on the operating status of the four units currently running—ZPC, FPC, Busher, and Arian—as well as the restart pace of other units. It is expected that the price center of the trading range will fluctuate within an upward trajectory. For the intraday outlook, methanol is expected to experience wide-range consolidation. Changes in geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase intraday volatility. Trading logic will move quickly in line with changes in geopolitical developments. Investors are advised to do a good job of risk management. (Guotai Junan Futures)