International Energy Agency warns: April oil supply crisis will worsen, considering further release of strategic reserves

Key Takeaways

• IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, Head of the International Energy Agency, said the April oil supply disruption will be more severe than in March.
• Birol said in an interview on the podcast “Good Companion” that the agency is considering releasing strategic oil reserves again.
• U.S. President Trump said Tuesday that U.S. forces will withdraw from Iran within a few weeks.

On March 6, 2026, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), held a press conference in Brussels.

The head of the IEA said the tight oil supply situation that has driven a sharp rise in oil prices since the outbreak of the Iran war will intensify further this month.

Fatih Birol, the IEA executive director, said in the “Good Companion” podcast episode hosted by Nikola Tangen, CEO of Norway’s bank investment management company, that the energy crisis triggered by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran is the worst in history.

“In April, the situation will be far worse than in March,” he said. He explained that in March, some cargo ships carrying oil and natural gas that had already set sail before the outbreak of the war were still arriving at ports one after another.

“These ships are still heading to ports to transport oil, energy, and other supplies,” he said. “But in April, there will be no oil to carry. The oil supply gap in April will be double that of March. In addition, there are disruptions to supplies of liquefied natural gas and other products. This will add to inflation. I think it will weigh on economic growth in many countries, especially emerging economies. Many countries may soon face energy rationing.”

On Tuesday, U.S. President Trump said U.S. forces will withdraw from Iran in “two or three weeks,” and the news sparked a broad rebound in financial markets.

But Birol pointed out that with the conflict now entering its fifth consecutive week, it has led to supply shortages more severe than those after the crises of the 1970s and the 2022 Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“Looking back at the oil crises of 1973 and 1979, each time it resulted in an oil supply loss of about 5 million barrels per day on average, which in turn triggered economic recessions across multiple countries,” he told Tangen. “Today, we lose 12 million barrels per day on average—more than the total of the two crises combined.”

He added that the natural gas supply losses caused by the conflict and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz also exceed the market gap when Russia’s natural gas supply was interrupted four years ago.

“The severity of the current crisis exceeds the combined total of these three crises. In addition, many key commodities—such as petrochemical products, fertilizer, and sulfur—crucial to global supply chains—are also facing supply disruptions. We are facing an unprecedented major supply upheaval.”

The IEA is considering further reserve releases

Birol also said that as the conflict in the Middle East continues, the IEA is considering releasing strategic oil reserves again.

“Every hour of every day, we are assessing market conditions. If we think it’s necessary, we may propose further releases of reserves,” Birol said. “The biggest issue at present is a shortage of aviation fuel and diesel; that is the main challenge. Supply tightness has already appeared in Asia, and Europe will soon face it— or at the latest, in early April, if not sooner.”

Earlier this month, IEA’s 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of emergency reserves to partially offset the supply disruptions caused by the Iran war.

“When the time is right, I will make recommendations to governments on releasing reserves,” Birol added in a podcast on Thursday—but he noted that releasing reserves again cannot fundamentally solve problems in energy markets.

“It can only ease the pain, not cure the root cause. China Economic Net International Channel,” he explained. “The cure is to open the Strait of Hormuz. Our move is only to buy time, and we do not believe that releasing reserves can completely resolve the problem.”

Since Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran and prompted Tehran to carry out retaliatory attacks in the Gulf region, oil prices have surged sharply. During March, the global benchmark Brent crude price jumped by more than 60%, setting the biggest month-on-month increase since records began in the 1980s.

In recent weeks, the IEA has released a series of recommendations to mitigate the impact of the global energy crisis, including reducing vehicle speed limits, promoting remote work, and cutting the use of gas ovens.

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Editor: Guo Mingyu