Trump's attitude towards the Strait of Hormuz is inconsistent.

An aerial photo of the Strait of Hormuz along the Iranian coast and on Qeshm Island.

“The U.S. hardly imports any oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the future won’t be any different. We don’t need it. We didn’t need it in the past, and we don’t need it now, either.”

This is an excerpt from the national address delivered last Wednesday by U.S. President Donald Trump during prime-time hours at the White House.

“Hurry up and open this damned strait, you bunch of lunatics, or else you’ll be living in hell—just you wait!”

This is a post Trump shared on the “Truth Social” platform on Sunday.

So what exactly has changed?

First, it’s oil prices.

On Thursday—the day after Trump’s speech—U.S. crude oil prices surged by more than 11%, closing above $111 per barrel, hitting a new four-year high and one of the largest single-day gains in history. Before Trump’s speech, West Texas Intermediate crude was still around $100 a barrel; before the outbreak of war, it was even below $70.

Trump is not wrong: the U.S. dependency on Middle Eastern oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz is extremely low. This narrow waterway carries about 20% of the world’s oil shipments. The U.S. consumes about 20 million barrels of crude per day; only about 0.5 million barrels come from this strait—an extremely small share that can be fully offset by oil from other regions.

But Trump’s latest threats, laden with profanity, underscore a stark reality: the health of the U.S. economy depends far more on the Strait of Hormuz than the president admits.

Supply-and-demand picture

Over the past 15 years, helped by the rise of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology (especially in the Permian Basin in Texas), the U.S. has achieved remarkable success in transitioning its energy industry. Today, the U.S. produces about 22 million barrels of oil per day—twice as much as Saudi Arabia, the world’s second-largest oil producer—slightly higher than its own daily crude oil consumption.

The U.S. has basically achieved energy independence.

The U.S. still imports more than 6 million barrels of crude per day, about one-third of its consumption; meanwhile it exports about 4 million barrels of oil per day.

A container port in Jersey City, New Jersey, with a cargo ship loaded with containers.

Wall Street analysts estimate that for every $10 per barrel increase in oil prices, it will slow the growth rate of U.S. GDP (the broadest measure of the U.S. economy) by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points. Therefore, with oil prices up by a cumulative $40 so far, they may drag GDP growth by about 1 percentage point—an impact that should not be underestimated, but not enough to cause a severe shock.

But if oil prices continue to surge sharply, the situation will rapidly deteriorate. And oil is not the only factor: a spike in diesel prices will make goods transported by all trucks more expensive; other imported goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz—such as aluminum, helium, and fertilizers—will also push up prices of building materials, chips, and food.

Inflation is expected to jump to around 3.5% in March’s annual U.S. consumer inflation rate, which would completely offset the average wage increase for American workers last year.

“The U.S. economy can absorb, in the short term, the shock caused by oil prices breaking $100,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, “but if they rise to $150 or even $200 per barrel, that’s a different story.”

The truth about the strait

This may well be an important reason Trump is once again growing wary of the Strait of Hormuz.

Since the outbreak of war, Trump has been saying one thing and meaning another on the strait issue. His administration has promised naval escort for oil tankers passing through the strait and to provide guarantees for ships that have lost maritime insurance.

He has also said tankers should summon the courage to pass through the waterway, while countries that rely more on Middle Eastern oil should help reopen the strait themselves.

“Go get your own oil!” Trump wrote on “Truth Social” on Tuesday.

Trump’s day-after-day repetition of these remarks has caused oil prices to swing dramatically, but the overall trend is upward—because it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran holds the upper hand on the strait issue, and that a U.S. withdrawal may not necessarily reopen this critical waterway to tankers.

Over the weekend, traders grew increasingly concerned: Trump has not provided an exit strategy for the U.S.-Iran war, and they worry his escalatory threats could further damage crude oil supply.

Meanwhile, Iran says it will charge tolls for ships that pass safely through the strait—many Gulf countries may likely refuse to pay. Anthony Yuan, global energy strategist at Citigroup, estimates that even if the strait is only partially open, global daily oil supply will be short by 4.4 million to 8 million barrels.

Trump has issued Iran a deadline of 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday for reopening the strait. It is not yet clear how Iran will respond, nor whether—and how—the U.S. can persuade Iran to lift the shutdown of the strait.

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责任编辑：郭明煜