Gold and Oil Insights: Gold experiences a sharp decline with a mild rebound; crude oil sentiment premium retreats

Spot Gold:

On March 25, news: As the Iranian conflict tightened global market liquidity, gold did not continue to play its traditional role as a safe-haven asset; instead, it saw a clear sell-off. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said that gold and silver are under pressure not because the long-term allocation logic has fundamentally reversed, but because the macro shock triggered by the war in the Middle East has forced investors to reprice inflation, interest rates, growth, and the liquidity environment out of sync, and to exchange cash by selling precious-metal positions that still show paper gains. However, he emphasized that once this round of forced liquidations and technical sell-offs comes to an end, fiscal imbalances, de-dollarization, and rising stagflation risks will still support a higher gold price.

Technical outlook: Yesterday, gold continued its rebound rhythm. After opening at 4406.2, it temporarily surged to 4448.8 in the morning session. Then, after the bears counterattacked, it pulled back to the 4404.3 low and then strongly rallied again. The highest point reached 4485.4, and it ultimately closed at 4472.5. On the daily chart, it printed a “pregnant hammer” pattern with upper and lower shadows. This pattern shows that bullish momentum is preserved to some extent, but the overall trend still leans upward; therefore, today’s trading approach will continue to focus mainly on buying on pullbacks. From a technical structure analysis, although the price rose in the early-morning period on a phased basis, it still remains within the broader large-range consolidation framework overall. There are three key resistance zones to watch above: the first resistance is near 4612-4625, the core suppression level for intraday short-term rebounds; the extreme resistance looks toward the 4687 area; and the key pivot between bulls and bears in the short term is in the 4715-4730 range of previously dense opening/clearing price levels. These three resistance levels increase in strength step by step, among which the first resistance level has significant short-term participation value. If the intraday price directly spikes to the second and third resistance levels, the reward-to-risk ratio would become imbalanced. Intraday, focus on the upside pressure near 4687-4715 dollars; on the downside, watch support near 4542-4495 dollars.

WTI Crude Oil:

News: In recent times, the international crude oil market has shown a clear pullback. The core driver comes from the stage of easing in the Middle East situation. The United States has submitted to Iran a conflict-resolution proposal containing about 15 points, while also pushing forward a roughly one-month ceasefire arrangement to create room for subsequent negotiations. This development directly changed the market’s expectations for how events would evolve, causing the risk premium that had built up due to the escalation of the conflict to be unwound in a concentrated manner. On March 25, during the Wednesday Asian trading session, crude oil traded around 88.07 dollars. As hopes for peace in the Middle East were released through the US-Iran negotiations, WTI prices fell. Traders are preparing for a report that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish later on Wednesday evening.

Technical outlook: The WTI daily timeframe has already shown phased top characteristics. The price was rejected and pulled back near the previous rally area; momentum indicators have also weakened in parallel, showing that upside momentum has clearly diminished. Current price action is gradually entering a consolidation range. A clear resistance forms around 93 dollars, corresponding to the earlier sentiment high area. On the downside, 83 dollars forms key support and also marks the dividing line between bulls and bears; once there is an effective breakdown, it may open up further pullback space. On the 4-hour timeframe, selling pressure has increased and the chart shows a high-volume decline structure. In the short term, the moving average system has formed a death cross; the price is trading below the main moving averages, indicating that bears are dominating the rhythm. The MACD indicator is running below the zero axis and its histogram continues to widen, further aggravating short-term downside risk. Intraday, focus on resistance at 92.3-94.0 above; on the downside, watch support at 86.0/84.6.

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