Can you think of it? The average cost of all currently losing chips isn’t 100k, isn’t 110k, but is only $93,600!

That means that under the current loss structure, as long as BTC rises back to 9.3w, it can bring the average cost of the losing chips back to break-even (red line in the chart).
Although there are still many chips trapped above right now, it can be concluded that during the 2 rapid sell-offs at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, a large amount of high-priced trapped chips must have chosen to cut losses and exit, and that’s what lowered the average cost of the overall floating losses.
That is what we’re usually instinctively accustomed to understanding as — a shakeout!
This figure’s 30-day deviation coefficient relative to the current BTC price is 1.4, and in the past 3 bear-market bottoms, the deviation coefficient has been at least above 2.0 (the blue waveform below).
Greater than or equal to 2.0 means that when entering the absolute bottom zone, BTC’s price is only a little less than half of the “average cost of losing chips.”
To satisfy this condition, this round’s BTC would have to drop to $46,800.
If it doesn’t drop that far, then this will be the most special bear market in history! Because in terms of “degree of suffering,” it’s much lighter than any previous bear market.
Will this rule be broken in this cycle? In my personal view, it will “very likely”......
(I don’t think it will drop this low.)
Of course, if it really does happen, what are you still hesitating for? Just “sell a kidney”! #Gate广场四月发帖挑战