4.7 Midday: It's either a broad rally or a broad decline. "普" stands for Trump.

[Taoguba]

Broad market

Basically it’s pretty much the same as the chart drawn over the weekend. The meaning is the same thing.

So the broad market has not hit a new low.

Still, it’s shrinking volume—1.6w hundred million. Still no direction. It’s simply because this rebound is coming after a sell-off that was worse than expected.

Then, once again, funds have arrived to buy the dip for a rebound.

That said, this volume rebound still doesn’t have expectations of being sustained.

Up or down—everything relies on the “madman” for expectations.

Profit-making effect

Strong repair

There’s a bit of a hidden risk.
It’s best if, after strong divergence continues,

Then a shift to strength and repair would be better.

But can this strong repair right at the start hold until the close? Hard to say.

It’s easy to realize profits in the middle of the trading day for a second wave of divergence.

And there’s also the final ultimatum tomorrow at 8 a.m.

Reversals in the newsflow a few times during the day—get ready to t ok o.

In the end, it still comes down to tonight. Anyway, both Japan and South Korea opened higher and then traded lower.

The sentiment cycle is still a rebound within a chaotic larger structure.

Sectors / themes

Right now, the theme cycle has two directions that are resonating. On the 03.24 node, one of them will drive the main rise.

One is pharma, the other is optics.

For pharma: the divergence of “two splits to three” (bifurcate, then split into three) is the key.

Today it tried to directly switch to “three” at the open, and during the session it released a divergence.

If Pharma Ming Kangde brings the sector with it and the sector’s moves get that lower-wick pattern—if not for this,

then the expectation of switching to “three” today would be lower.

Jin Yao, Wanbangde, Meinouhua—at the open they all actively moved upward, but they still followed the sector back down.

Second wave: Pharma Ming Kangde triggers a return flow.

A new burst of first-board limit-up appeared—Xin Tianyao, Jinling Pharmaceutical.

It reflected strength back to the higher-level names like Wanbangde and Jin Yao, making them strong again.

So then it’s about what happens with that “one more push” tomorrow.

Can it fully complete this main rise into “three”?

As for optics: here the open continues strength.

For “two into three,” there are two catch-up/breakthrough plays: Huiyuan Communication continues with a single-board one-character limit-up plus additional buys, and Xinneng Taishan snaps up with a quick-limit.

For the high-level name that’s more emotion-grouped—Fal Sheng—goes into the spotlight and does a quick-limit too.

But Hangdian has divergence.

Changfei has severe lagging gains, and it feels like it may be switching into divergence.

Today, for optical communication’s first-tier weights—Yi Zhongtian—there was weak negative feedback,

which caused the sector not to be strong.

This direction’s overall structure hasn’t broken, but it feels like, minute by minute, it may enter an adjustment structure.

Right now, the sentiment cycle is chaotic, but overall structure is also at a point in the “switch to three” stage—yet sentiment is not strong.

Higher-level names aren’t strong. Even if Jin Yao does an active seven-board limit-up, it still doesn’t say—when it boards, it drives medical pharma to pull back into strength.

It’s also a low-level “fill-in gains” pullback and return that reflects strength back into closing the higher-level positions.

Here, funds—especially quant funds—prefer doing first-stage theme plays at the low end.

On the weekend, domestic compute was hyped so aggressively, yet not even one direction really took off.

Domestic semiconductors: they’re talking about lithography machines and photoresist.

But what actually becomes strong is memory—De Mingli leads. Isn’t that just an oversold rebound?

In semiconductors: Hetero? (Hanbu?), SMIC, Hanhua—those rise makes it feel like it’s just diverting from Yi Zhongtian.

For domestic compute—Huawei Ascend—plus a few higher-identity funding points were ignited, but there weren’t enough funds to push to the limit-up board.

Then the strongest that breaks out turns out to be chemicals. Specifically, the sub-sector of organic silicon—also driven by earnings expectations.

Anchor on Bull Chemical (Jinniu Huagong): isn’t that just a “down two then rebound” and then, resonating with a new low-end first-stage theme?

For tech: Apple and consumer electronics—Furong Technology comes with a one-character big order—yet there’s not much follow-through.

Here, the probability of pharma switching to “three” increases.

Because with so many directions rotating, none of them has managed to really “kill” pharma.

So here, there’s likely another chance to switch to “three.”

At the low end, 5 first-board limit-ups appear.

At the high end, mainly watch Wanbangde. If Fal Sheng makes it into the spotlight and can still hit limit-up, and if there’s good news triggering an abnormal move for the stock.

Not important stock commentary

Meinouhua

In the early session, this was a bidding-war rush to a high open with insufficient volume.

At the open, this surge went up a bit and then got realized immediately.

It’s completely a quant-trading style.

What you were looking at in the early session was already wrong.

When the sector is疯狂下杀 (furiously dumping), it still tries to rally against the trend.

Unless it’s a whale/certain smart money doing the order-book display.

But within it, it’s a quant “nest.”

The pullback afterward fits quant’s trading playbook.

Then it retests the 10-day line for a quant-driven low-absorption trade and holds.

This stock’s status has always been inferior to Wanbangde.

Wanbangde can’t be focused on, so it becomes a “second choice” arbitrage product.

It has “being ahead in principle,” but without “presence/attributes.”

A run-up then pullback—trimming and clearing can both be done.

Whether the retest of the 10-day line is a low buy or not isn’t important. This stock is not as good as Yu Neng Holding (that time).

Jin Yao Pharmaceutical

Serious divergence exploded with heavy volume.

Still hasn’t broken out of the role of a “supplementary rebound” (catch-up) position.

In a chaotic period, heavy-volume high open and then turning to strength—the success rate is only about 55/45, I guess.

Don’t think the Strait (Haixia) can run out a “supplementary rebound to replace the leader” scenario—like He Bi China getting slotted out by being ahead of Pingtan Development.

That theme is something that happens once in a hundred years; besides that, other themes don’t work.

Now it’s not only pharma—there’s also geopolitics-related commodities, and compute power.

Pharma isn’t the only theme.

More of it is about staying grouped. If today the sector doesn’t rotate back into strength, Jin Yao is hard to re-close the limit-up.

Changfei Optical Fiber

Feels like this one is a mess.

Severely lagging gains. Low-end catch-up rebounds are strong, but it isn’t strong.

The sector pulled back today.

Hope it can rotate back once more tomorrow.

Here, it’s basically funds using the oversold rebound window.

To then do a full “three-stage” cycle again.

At the same time, it’s fermenting low-end first-stage theme arbitrage.

After this round of rebound ends, there will be another round of divergence. If it can resonate,

then among the current high-end two themes—optics and pharma going into a retreat—this retreat after the decline, followed by the “down one then exhaustion then resonance” theme,

has a chance to be the main line for the second cycle.

It’s not that the “down two then exhaustion then resonance” theme of the old cycle is always best, right?

For quarter-to-quarter big-cycle switching: either wait for “down two,” or wait for “switch to three.”

And within a quarter, the handoff between one cycle and the two cycles—at the “down one repair” node, you can test-and-learn for trial and error.

The same logic applies to the handoff between the second cycle and the third cycle.