#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge #GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge 4.6 Bitcoin market bearishness has encountered unexpected setbacks, and another sword of Damocles hangs over the bulls!

In the crypto world:
1. According to Coinglass key data, if Bitcoin falls below $65k, the liquidation strength of major CEX long positions will reach $65k! If Bitcoin breaks through $68k (already liquidated), the total short liquidation strength will also be $754 million.
2. On April 6, institutions purchased 69k BTC in Q1 2026, while retail investors sold 62k BTC.
In the market:
1. On April 6, ABC News reported: U.S. President Trump stated that if no agreement is reached, he will bomb the entire country of Iran with "almost no" room for negotiations.
2. The Iranian government responded. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghayi said, “Iran’s response will be proportional retaliation.”
3. Trump: The conflict with Iran should end within a few days.
4. On April 6, Iran’s Fars News reported: After obtaining Iran’s permission, 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours.
5. On April 6, CME “Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is 1.6%, up from 0.5% last Friday. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 1.8%, down from 2.0% last Friday. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%, up from 0.5% last Friday. Overall, Trump’s final ultimatum remains the market’s focus.
Market sentiment:
Overall cautious optimism coexists with high alertness. The upward trend remains unstable, with shorts facing liquidation—be wary of black swan events liquidating longs.
Daily chart: On Monday, the price broke above $68k, liquidating short positions. The price fluctuated repeatedly, with bulls and bears in a tug-of-war. The current market sees the price bouncing back and forth, with candlesticks showing mixed signals, reflecting the market’s response. Technically, the KDJ indicator shows a bullish crossover with widening divergence, and the 7-day RSI is at 57, indicating a slight bullish advantage. However, the price’s K-line center of gravity is at the $70k mark, which it has yet to break through, so there’s still a significant probability of a bearish reversal. Additionally, on Tuesday, Trump’s final deadline for Iran expires—be cautious of a price retreat that could liquidate longs again.
Overall, buying activity should not be overly aggressive; consider short positions near resistance levels. Focus on the development of the situation, and risk management is the top priority.
On the upside: initial resistance is near the $70k mark; further resistance is around the upper Bollinger Band at approximately 71,663.
On the downside: initial support is near the April 2 low of 64,232; further support is around the April 2 low of 62,400