Trump issues another "final warning," U.S. stocks rise across the board

The three major stock indexes rise, and the Nasdaq is nearing 22,000 points;

U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate within a narrow range over the medium and long term;

Tesla falls by more than 2%, and JPMorgan issues a bearish research note.

Wall Street edged higher on Monday, as investors focused on developments in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened that if Iran did not “surrender” by 8:00 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time on April 7, he would escalate pressure on Iran. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by about 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to 46,669.88. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 21,996.34. The S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,611.83 points.

【Hot Stock Performances】

Leading tech stocks mixed gains and losses. Amazon, Apple, and Google rose more than 1%; Nvidia rose 0.14%; Microsoft and Meta edged lower. Tesla fell 2.15%. JPMorgan cut its profit forecast for Tesla and warned that its stock price has 60% downside room.

On individual stocks, the storage sector performed well. Seagate Technology rose 5.58%, and Morgan Stanley raised its target price for the company from $468 to $582. Western Digital, Micron Technology, and SanDisk all rose more than 3%.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.32%. Marvell Technology rose 2.24%. AMD rose 1.23%. TSMC and Intel rose 0.80%.

Asset-management giant Invesco fell 5.2%. Previously, Goldman Sachs lowered its target price from $30 to $27 and maintained a “Neutral” rating.

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.21%. Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com rose about 0.2%. PDD Holdings was flat. NetEase fell 0.16%.

【Market Overview】

The situation in the Middle East remains tense. According to CCTV News, at a press conference held at the White House on April 6 local time, President Donald Trump said that if Iran failed to “surrender” before 8:00 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time on April 7, he would launch attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure. Trump said a deal that he can accept must be reached before the final deadline on April 7. He claimed that he would destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants—“we have already drawn up a plan,” and once it is activated, “every bridge inside Iran will be completely destroyed, and every power plant inside Iran will be completely disabled.” He also said that if the U.S. is willing, “the entire destruction process would only take four short hours.” However, he claimed, “we do not hope this happens.”

Earlier reports said the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators were discussing “the terms of a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement,” aimed at bringing the war to a complete end. Citing the Iranian Islamic Republic News Agency on April 6, Xinhua News Agency reported that Iran has responded to Pakistan regarding the war-ending proposal put forward by the U.S. The response includes 10 clauses. The key points include: emphasizing that the war must end permanently in line with Iran’s concerns; and putting forward a series of demands, such as ending conflicts in the region, establishing a secure passage agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, post-war reconstruction, and lifting sanctions.

On Monday, the Investment Research Institute of Wells Fargo said in a report to clients: “In the coming weeks, the risk of war escalation remains high. Rising oil prices lift transportation and fertilizer prices, exacerbating the economic challenges faced by global economies that are dependent on energy imports.”

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said that supply-chain disruptions caused by the Iran war could keep inflation and interest rates at levels higher than expected.

The war between the U.S. and Iran has disrupted the market for more than a month. A surge in crude oil prices has triggered concerns about inflation, sending stocks sharply lower. The S&P 500 has fallen 4% since the conflict erupted. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has continued to stay at a high level after Trump’s remarks, at 24.17.

“Perhaps the market is underestimating how severe the shock to the global economy is,” Michael Rosen, Chief Investment Officer at Angeles Investments, said. “I believe the market may not fully recognize the short- and medium-term impact of disruptions to energy supplies. This means energy prices will remain high for a longer period.”

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT, said: “On days like today, investors won’t do too much. We actually don’t know which side the truth of any news is on—whether it’s the U.S., Iran, or Pakistan.” Martin added: “Trump has to reopen the Strait of Hormuz… he is making a big deal out of it. Investors are all restless and anxiously waiting.”

U.S. Treasury yields over the medium and long term fluctuate within a narrow range. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 1 basis point to 4.34%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, closely tied to interest-rate expectations, was basically unchanged at 3.85%.

In terms of economic data, the economic figures released on Monday showed that the U.S. ISM Services PMI for March fell from 56.1 to 54, with the pace of expansion slower than expected. At the same time, employment in the sector contracted, while the Prices Paid Index—an inflation leading indicator—soared to the highest level since October 2022.

In a report, ING said: “The ISM services data performance is acceptable and aligns with the U.S. 2026 economy’s expected 2.5% annualized growth. But what is worrying is that the March employment component fell sharply and input prices surged, indicating that after the Middle East conflict intensified economic and market anxieties, business caution has been heating up.”

【Commodities Performance】

Global oil prices hit a trough and rebounded. The Iran-U.S. ceasefire deal remains shrouded in uncertainty. OPEC and its allies (OPEC+)‘s eight member countries agreed on Sunday to increase May’s oil production quota by 206k barrels per day, marking a second consecutive month of production increases. The WTI front-month contract rose 0.78% to $112.41 per barrel, while the Brent front-month contract rose 0.90% to $110.05 per barrel.

The precious metals market saw mild volatility. The market is watching the outlook for U.S. inflation and the Middle East situation. As of the time of publication, COMEX gold for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell nearly 0.2%, trading around $4,670 per ounce. COMEX silver futures were flat, at $72.90 per ounce.

（责任编辑: Zhang Yan）

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