One sentence sums it up: Negative demand feedback continues to ferment, making it difficult for supply-side themes to perform.

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Zhuochuang Information’s senior analyst for the protein feed market, Wang Ruwen

【Intro】In March, the soybean meal market was driven by multiple factors from external macro conditions and both international and domestic fundamentals, resulting in relatively frequent price fluctuations. Entering April, the impact from external factors becomes significantly weaker. The market gradually returns to fundamentals. Although there are expectations of tightened supply on the supply side, persistent negative feedback from the demand side continues to build up. Therefore, Zhuochuang Information expects soybean meal spot prices to fall in April.

Plant Start-Up Slips, Yet Market Supply Still Appears Loose

Affected by the dual impact of delays in Brazil’s vessel loading schedules and customs quarantine policies, along with certain gaps in raw material procurement by some enterprises, starting from the late March period, production companies across different regions in China have planned shutdowns to varying degrees. According to Zhuochuang Information’s data, in March 2026, China’s soybean crushing volume was 8.0446 million tons. On both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, it shows an increase trend and is higher than the average level for the same period over the past four years. Based on production companies’ planned start-ups and shutdowns, in April, shutdowns are concentrated in North China, Shandong, and Northeast China. During the month, it shows a pattern of “lower at the beginning, higher later.” It is estimated that the crushing volume may fall month-on-month to 7.0 million tons, but it remains above the levels for the same period over the past four years. In addition, as of the week of March 27, producers’ inventories were 0.6466 million tons, higher than both the same period last year and the five-year average. Therefore, against the backdrop of relatively high finished product inventories, although supply may drop in some regions on a temporary/phase basis, overall market supply remains loose and is unlikely to provide effective support for soybean meal prices. In the mid-to-late April period, as Brazilian soybeans gradually arrive at port and oil plants resume operations, pressure on the supply side will be released, and the price focus will move further downward.

Downstream Livestock Losses Worsen Further, Constraining Soybean Meal Demand

Besides the pressure on prices caused by the supply side, negative feedback from the demand side continues to intensify as well. In March, China’s hog price main trend fell and hit fresh lows. According to Zhuochuang Information’s data, on April 2, the self-breeding and self-raising profit value was -332.74 yuan per head, and piglet fattening profit was -236.92 yuan per head. With costs on the livestock side clearly increasing, downstream feed enterprises’ sentiment toward purchasing feed raw materials has weakened, and purchasing enthusiasm is not strong. In addition, the state stockpiled wheat has been continuously released, with high market transaction rates, and wheat’s substitution ratio for corn has increased significantly, indirectly reducing the amount of soybean meal used and further suppressing soybean meal demand. Feed enterprises generally reduce the proportion of soybean meal to be added. At present, the livestock side’s intention to reduce weight and market hogs does not decrease; in April, hog capacity is still in the stage of being released. The theoretical hog marketing volume may continue to increase. Meanwhile, in many regions, the weight-reduction results in March were not ideal, and in the first half of April there may still be accelerated weight reduction and hog marketings, which would bring a negative impact on soybean meal’s rigid/essential demand.

According to Zhuochuang Information’s data monitoring, in February to March, the total成交 volume of soybean meal by production enterprises was 3.66M tons, lower than the levels for the same period in previous years. The spot sales pace of enterprises is generally not fast. Taking the East China market as an example, in April, enterprise sales progress is less than 40%. Some enterprises face relatively large inventory pressure, which also indirectly reflects a weak trend on the soybean meal demand side.

April soybean meal spot prices have some room to fall

From the perspective of market sentiment, at present, participants across the entire industry chain generally hold a bearish bias. Traders continuously reduce their positions to avoid the risk of price declines. Feed enterprises maintain a “safety stock” of around 20 days and adopt a “buy as needed and use as needed” strategy. The purchase quantity under forward basis contracts is limited, further exacerbating market bearish sentiment. Overall, with external disruptions in the April soybean meal market clearly easing, the market returns to fundamentals as the dominant factor. Zhuochuang Information expects that within the month, spot prices may show a gradually weakening trend, with the range reference at 3160-3050 yuan/ton. Supply-side expectations of phase/tactical tightening are difficult to offset the persistent negative feedback from the demand side. Combined with the market’s cautious bearish sentiment, a consensus has basically been reached that soybean meal spot prices will fall. Looking ahead, key risks to focus on include the arrival and customs clearance rhythm of soybeans, changes in livestock-side profits, international conditions, and the price differentials of substitute products. These factors may cause phased price fluctuations, but they will not change the overall downward trend. For enterprises in the industry chain, it is recommended to manage inventory reasonably and avoid the risk of further price declines.

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