Just now, a sudden flash crash!

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【Overview】 Pop Mart has suffered a sudden crash

A reporter from China Fund News: Taylor

Brothers and sisters, it came out of nowhere: Pop Mart opened for trading in the afternoon and then suddenly crashed in a straight line. As of the time of this release, its share price is down more than 20%, and its market cap has evaporated by over HK$58 billion in a single day.

On the news front, the company released its full-year results for last year at midday. Revenue surged 185% year over year to RMB 37.12 billion, slightly below the market’s expected RMB 38 billion. Net profit rose 309% year over year to RMB 12.8 billion, slightly above the forecast of RMB 12.6 billion. Adjusted net profit was RMB 13.08 billion, up 284.5% year over year.

With such strong earnings, why did the stock price plunge instead? Pop Mart’s share price today hit its largest intraday drop since April 2025.

Market participants said that even after the company reported full-year revenue growth, it still depended to a large extent on LABUBU sales, disappointing investors who had originally been betting on other IPs to take over growth momentum.

DZT Research analyst Ke Yan said, “In the second half of the year, dependence on LABUBU for sales is even higher than in the first half.”

The earnings report shows that the LABUBU family generated revenue of RMB 14.16 billion. All four of the company’s major regions achieved triple-digit growth, exceeding the market expectation of RMB 12.5 billion. This character contributed about 40% of total revenue, higher than 23% in 2024.

Although the newly promoted Skullpanda performed brilliantly, with revenue reaching RMB 3.5 billion and beating expectations, other popular IPs such as Crybaby and Molly underperformed expectations. Among them, Molly—which is an early flagship IP of the company—generated revenue of only RMB 2.9 billion, far below the market’s expected RMB 4.6 billion, highlighting the difficulty for older IPs to sustain growth.

Some analysts noted, “Whether Pop Mart can continue growing this year depends on overseas expansion—especially in Asia-Pacific and North America—diversification of IP beyond LABUBU, and the continued launch of new products.”

Previously, Morgan Stanley predicted that, due to highly polarized market views, Pop Mart’s share price would remain volatile after the earnings report is released on March 25. In a report, analysts Dustin Wei, Jenny Yu, and others said that over the past two and a half months, Pop Mart’s share price has been swinging significantly, but they have not observed any substantive change in how the bulls and bears view earnings expectations. The bullish side expects profits to reach RMB 16.5 billion to RMB 17.0 billion in 2026, while the bearish side expects profit growth to be weak and to start declining from the second half of 2026. Because the bulls and bears may interpret the same information differently. Southbound funds are still the main source of long positions, while overseas foreign-currency hedge funds are the main source of short positions.

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Chief editor: Gao Jia