Analysis: 84% of traders on Polymarket are in a loss position

ZkProver · 2026-04-07T04:04:13+00:00

The report shows that 84.1% of traders on the Polymarket platform are in loss, with only 2% of traders making profits over $1,000, and 0.033% of traders earning $100k or more. Most traders engage in short-term trading, and the probability of long-term profitability decreases month by month.

ZkProver

2026-04-07 04:04:13

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ChainCatcher reports that, according to The Defiant, independent on-chain analyst Andrey Sergeenkov’s latest research found that 84.1% of traders on Polymarket are in a losing position.

The report analyzed 2.5 million wallet addresses. Sergeenkov found that over the past year, only 2% of traders on the platform have accumulated profits exceeding $1,000, while just 0.033% (i.e., 840 addresses) of traders have reached profits of $100k on the Polymarket platform.

“Most traders just come to trade for a while and then leave,” the report concluded. The study found that the probability of earning $5,000 per month declines month over month. Among 6,600 traders who average more than $5,000 in monthly profits, only 2.6% remain consistently active for more than a year.

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