Iran's new leader "stays in the shadows" while governing—how will they control the country's destiny? | Phoenix Focus

Ask AI · Muje-taba Takes to the Shadows in Power: Has Iran’s Power Core Been Transferred?

Taking over from his father, is Muje-taba actually still alive and running Iran—or is he simply not among the living anymore? Would he be hiding in Russia? The statements issued in his name do appear to come from him personally, but is there someone else behind the scenes doing the drafting? Ultimately, who is truly in actual control of Iran’s fate?

Muje-taba Mysteriously Vanishes—His Whereabouts and Safety Remain a Mystery

On April 5, local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Muje-taba Khamenei posted on social media, saying that the will of the Iranian people is to continue conducting effective homeland defense operations, and that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—this strategic lever—must also be kept in use.

On March 12, Muje-taba issued his first statement, emphasizing that he would continue the resistance line, vowing revenge for the murdered Iranian people, and explicitly stating that he would continue taking measures such as blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

On March 21, with the Israel-U.S.-Iran war entering its 22nd day and the U.S. and Israel continuously expanding the battlefield and focusing on striking Iranian energy facilities, it coincided with Iran’s new year of Nowruz. Muje-taba delivered a written address, setting the new year theme as “achieving economic resilience under the protection of national unity and national security.”

On March 29, as the fighting had continued for one month, in order to solidify support for the “Arc of Resistance” front, Muje-taba expressed his thanks to Iraqi religious leaders and the Iraqi people who took a clear stance and provided support to Iran when it was attacked.

On March 30, Muje-taba sent a condolence message to Commander Tangkysiri of the Navy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike, as well as to his family members, comrades, and the Revolutionary Guard Corps. Worth noting is that since taking office, although Muje-taba has published speeches and statements, he has never publicly appeared. Speculation abroad about his health and his specific whereabouts has continued to swirl, and just where this new Iranian leader is located remains an unsolved mystery to this day.

Veteran media figure Sasu said that Muje-taba’s long-term refusal to show his face is indeed abnormal. Even if for safety reasons, it would not be impossible to release even a short television address. Doubts have already arisen within Iran as a result.

Some analysts believe that not appearing publicly can safeguard Muje-taba, the newly appointed core leader, to the greatest possible extent.

On March 17, Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. On March 26, during a meeting presided over by Tangkysiri, commander of the Navy of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, he was targeted by the Israeli Air Force. All attendees, including multiple commanders, were killed, and the command-and-control system of the Strait of Hormuz’s key defense line was temporarily interrupted.

On March 31, in the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, Jamshid Eshaqi, an adviser to the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff of Iran’s armed forces, and several members of his extended family were killed.

It can be seen that Israel’s “decapitation operation” has directly targeted the Iranian decision-making core. Up to now, multiple senior Iranian officials have died in this round of fighting. Middle East expert Dong Manyuan believes that because the U.S. and Israel have continued to conduct targeted eliminations of Iran’s top leadership, the security environment is extremely perilous. The primary reason Muje-taba does not easily show himself is to protect his own safety to the maximum extent.

Muje-taba’s whereabouts are shrouded in mystery—even it is difficult for Iran’s leadership to make direct contact with him. On March 11, 2026, a post on social media by Youssef, the son of Iranian President Pezeshkian, said: “I heard that Mr. Muje-taba was injured. I asked friends who stay in touch with him. They said, thank God, he is safe and sound, and there’s no problem at all.”

Youssef’s remarks quickly drew attention. Some media outlets speculated that President Pezeshkian himself might also be unable to contact Muje-taba. On the same day, Iranian media, citing a source inside the government, said that since Muje-taba was appointed Supreme Leader, there has been no contact between President Pezeshkian and him—not even cabinet ministers know Muje-taba’s specific condition and where he is.

According to the U.S. news site Axios, it is not surprising that Muje-taba has remained hidden out of security concerns. Intelligence held by the U.S. and Israel indicates that he is still alive, and there is evidence that Iranian officials attempted to arrange a meeting with him, but they were unable to succeed for security reasons.

Some Israeli officials claim that Muje-taba moves between safe houses and does not use digital communications. Muje-taba’s caution is not without reason. On March 13, the U.S. Department of State issued a clue bounty targeting Muje-taba and senior Iranian military and political officials, with a reward of up to $10 million. Dong Manyuan said that as the U.S. and Israel deploy intelligence tools across all dimensions—manpower, signals, images, networks, AI, and more—to track him, it forces Muje-taba to completely give up using any modern communication equipment.

A Triple Manhunt and Siege—Iran’s Top Leadership Deep in a Security Crisis

Another threat facing Muje-taba comes from an “insider.” At present, a high-intensity, large-scale “purge” operation is underway inside Iran.

Since March 10, personnel from the Revolutionary Guard and other institutions have been arrested; multiple groups providing intelligence to the U.S. and Israel have been rounded up. Iran’s intelligence services have also detained several people involved in anti-security activities using the “Starlink” system. Among these, the most attention-grabbing is Revolutionary Guard commander Kani. There are reports that in the deadly airstrike launched by the U.S.-Israeli forces on February 28—where multiple top figures, including Khamenei, died on the spot—Kani, as a core commander, left only minutes before the explosion occurred.

For a time, all kinds of rumors spread widely. It was not until March 20 that Kani issued a written statement saying that the “Axis of Resistance” was growing stronger and that it would take more independent actions against the U.S. and Israel, and only then did the rumors about an “insider” die down. However, it is already an open fact that Iran has been severely infiltrated, from the military to the intelligence services. This is one of the important reasons Muje-taba chose to go “incognito.” Sasu said that Iran’s internal departments have been severely infiltrated, making it difficult to ensure security without any mishaps. Therefore, Muje-taba has been fully isolated and protected, never appearing publicly, and he even does not dare to record videos.

In addition to severe infiltration within Iran, using artificial intelligence to “hunt” top leaders is also seen as a direct threat by Israel targeting Muje-taba. According to disclosures by senior Israeli military and intelligence officials, Israel has spent decades building an assassination system, which has continued to be改fitted in recent years and is now increasingly mature. Today, with intelligence agencies able to exploit system vulnerabilities, they can launch cyber intrusions targeting thousands of sites within Iran. Whether it is street surveillance cameras or various payment platforms, their data are all fed into a brand-new, highly secret Israeli AI platform used to extract daily habits and actionable leads related to the “hunting” targets. This means that as long as Muje-taba appears anywhere in Iran, there is a possibility that he will be discovered and tracked and locked down by an AI system.

U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies have been trying to find any clues to Muje-taba’s whereabouts. In the run-up to Iran’s Nowruz holiday on March 21, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and intelligence agencies such as Israel’s Mossad were closely monitoring whether he would continue his father’s tradition and issue a new year address. However, unexpectedly, on that day Muje-taba’s social media account only posted text and attached a photograph. According to the U.S. newspaper The Wall Street Journal, multiple image research scholars analyzed that the photo posted by Muje-taba may have been generated by artificial intelligence or modified. Sasu said that such speculation can create contradictions inside Iran, and even trigger factional confrontations and power chaos.

Life-and-death rumors swirl—Iran’s power landscape falls into a maze

Muje-taba’s whereabouts are like a fog. Against the backdrop of complex internal and external conditions, can this “disappearing” Supreme Leader truly control power, and how will he decide Iran’s future direction?

After Muje-taba was elected Supreme Leader of Iran, U.S. President Trump repeatedly made comments about his whereabouts. On March 9, in a Fox News interview, Trump said that Muje-taba may be injured but still alive. On March 12, he said Muje-taba should still be alive. But on March 29, Trump changed his wording, saying, “We haven’t heard any news about him. He has disappeared.” In between, on March 25, Trump said in a speech that Iran wants him to become the Supreme Leader. Sasu believes Trump hopes Muje-taba will appear in order to obtain hunting leads; yet his long-term concealment instead weakens Iran’s cohesion, and the U.S. expects a more moderate faction to come to power in Iran.

The Kuwaiti media outlet Al-Jarida reported on March 15, citing a “person close to the Supreme Leader’s circle,” that Muje-taba was abruptly selected as Iran’s next Supreme Leader by an Iranian experts’ meeting on March 8, but that on March 12 he had already been taken to Moscow for treatment. The report said that Muje-taba was injured in the February 28 joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike. His injuries required a more complete hospital and precise medical follow-up—hard to achieve within Iran, which has been continuously bombed. Currently, he is receiving ongoing treatment and rehabilitation at a private hospital in Moscow.

In response to this claim, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova, in an interview with Phoenix TV, said that the purpose of such materials is merely to divert public attention away from the truly important facts.

Israeli intelligence assessments believe that Muje-taba’s injuries may be more serious than initially judged, but they have not yet obtained conclusive evidence that he has left Iran. Dong Manyuan believes that Muje-taba is most likely still alive and holds real power; otherwise, Iran would be unable to maintain its current unity and cohesion, nor could it launch such well-organized counterattacks.

On April 1, there were reports from Iran that Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghai said Muje-taba is in good health and has delayed his public appearance due to the war. Muje-taba’s long-term “incognito” style of governance has caused changes to Iran’s internal power structure. Recently, Iranian President Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Aragchi, and Speaker of Parliament Qalibaf have been frequently appearing in public, which has been widely seen as the effect of “no leader at the helm.” As for what Trump said—that the U.S. is negotiating with authoritative figures—it is also widely believed to be contacts with Foreign Minister Aragchi and Speaker of Parliament Qalibaf. According to a report by Israel’s Ynet, in a private meeting with U.S. presidential envoy Witkov on March 19, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi told him that Muje-taba has agreed to hold talks.

Dong Manyuan believes that Muje-taba has not been sidelined and still holds the highest decision-making authority, and the Iranian foreign minister could absolutely not independently release any key statements to the outside world involving negotiations.

The leader’s absence in the courtroom—Middle East developments become even harder to predict

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director Ratcliffe and U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency Director Adams testified in a recent closed-door hearing in the House of Representatives, saying that Iran is experiencing a serious crisis in command and control, but there are no signs that collapse is imminent.

A senior Israeli official, in an interview with the U.S. news site Axios, said there is no evidence that Muje-taba is actually issuing orders. A senior official from an Arab country told Axios that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is taking over Iran. Dong Manyuan noted that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard has clearly pledged allegiance to Muje-taba. Currently, Iran’s domestic and foreign affairs follow the leader’s will, the state’s system is operating normally, and no abnormality has appeared.

Right now, Trump is announcing that negotiations are going well, while also deploying large numbers of troops around Iran, and he has even claimed that the war is about to end. Faced with this U.S. leader who goes back on his word, Iran has not reduced its level of attacks on Israel and U.S. military facilities. And as “Arc of Resistance” groups such as the Houthis, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi militia forces have joined in, the direction of the war has become unclear for a time. At this critical moment, Muje-taba’s “incognito” is not only one man’s absence, but may also cast huge uncertainty over Middle East geopolitics.

Producer: He Jining

Director: Zhang Meng

Editor: Wang Jinjie