Feitian Maotai's "countercyclical" price increase, can Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao finally breathe a sigh of relief?

Ask AI · Will raising Feitian Moutai prices ease pressure on other high-end brands?

The reporter from The Daily Economic News: Xiong JIanan Editor from The Daily Economic News: Zhao Yun

Effective March 31, 2026, the sales contract price (ex-factory price) of Feitian Moutai will be adjusted from 1169 yuan per bottle to 1269 yuan per bottle, and the retail price of bottles sold through the company’s own operation system will be adjusted from 1499 yuan per bottle to 1539 yuan per bottle.

On the same day, the market immediately responded: multiple third-party quote platforms showed that Feitian Moutai’s original-box single-day increase was more than 60 yuan per bottle, while single bottles rose by more than 80 yuan per bottle in a single day— the largest single-day jump since last year’s Spring Festival.

The capital market also delivered a positive response. After the market opened on Tuesday, the liquor sector collectively opened higher; within the sector, individual stocks generally turned red, and several leading liquor stocks saw intraday gains of more than 4% in the morning, though the market then retreated in the afternoon.

By the close, Kweichow Moutai remained ahead of the liquor sector with a gain of 2.11%.

As an industry benchmark in baijiu, Moutai’s price adjustment this time is not an isolated move. Behind it is the continuous rollout of a series of market-oriented measures, including the normalization of iMoutai direct sales and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for retail prices in the company’s own system.

At present, the baijiu industry is still undergoing a period of deep adjustment. By raising its ex-factory and retail prices to further push market-oriented reforms, what impact will Moutai bring to the industry? When multiple liquor companies—such as Wuliangye, Xijiu, and Langjiu—choose “downward” adjustments, Moutai, contrary to the trend, “raises upward” its prices; will that also affect other brands’ pricing logic and channel ecosystems across the industry?

The company controls pricing autonomy
Room for future price increases through “small-step slow runs”

From the rollout of various actions—such as iMoutai’s normalized direct-to-consumer sales at parity for Feitian, the definition of retail prices as terminal prices, and adjustments to non-standard product prices—this time’s upward adjustment of the retail price of Feitian Moutai means Moutai’s pricing is taking step by step into a “follow-the-market” stage.

In the “2026 Kweichow Moutai Liquor Market-Oriented Operation Plan” released on January 14, the company also clearly stated that it would orient toward the market and build a dynamic adjustment mechanism for retail prices within its self-operated system characterized by “follow-the-market, relatively stable.”

Specifically, for this round of price increases, the ex-factory price and the retail price within the self-operated system for Feitian Moutai each rose by 8.6% and 2.7%, respectively. After the adjustment, there remains a 21.3% profit margin spread in the retail price within the self-operated system relative to the sales contract price. It is also worth noting that the adjustment magnitude of the ex-factory price is the lowest among all prior rounds, and the retail price did not increase in sync with the ex-factory price by 100 yuan per bottle.

From the channel perspective, the significance of this price adjustment lies precisely not in how large the increase is, but in the fact that after eight years, it is the first time the company has adjusted its guidance price of 1499 yuan. A distributor commented this way: in the past, adjustments to Moutai’s ex-factory price were mostly “compensatory,” meaning it would track market conditions and increase in tandem; but this time, while the ex-factory price was raised, the retail price moved along as well, indicating that Moutai truly has gained the initiative in price control.

This adjustment shifts the pricing core—from the former official guidance price to the self-operated retail price. Moutai stabilizes market and channel confidence through modest price increases, and then relies on iMoutai’s self-operated channels to expand volume, reclaiming pricing dominance from the source and reducing interference from middlemen’s speculation in terminal prices.

On the other hand, from the market’s viewpoint, Moutai’s price adjustment this time has ample market foundations.

Currently, the company’s actual production capacity from 2022 to 2024 has remained stable at around 56k tons, so supply is relatively steady. On the demand side, in the first quarter this year, iMoutai exceeded 3.98 million users purchasing their desired products; Feitian Moutai sold out for 90 consecutive days, with demand growing clearly, and after the holiday, many distributors’ inventories were also less than half a month.

In a research report, Founder Securities pointed out that the logic behind this round of price increase is consistent with earlier adjustments to non-standard product prices: the core is to promote the company’s shift from traditional plan-based pricing to market-oriented dynamic pricing. Previously, the company had already laid a systematic foundation in its product system, operating model, and channel layout. At present, Feitian Moutai’s market wholesale price remains in the 1550–1650 yuan range, still higher than the adjusted ex-factory price and retail price; thus, the price increase has strong market support.

Based on the existing market conditions and the supply-demand situation, the above-mentioned distributors predict that Moutai’s bottle price may continue to maintain modest and steady increases going forward. A research report from China Merchants Securities also stated that in the next four years, with limited supply and potential demand recovery, there is still room for prices to keep “small-step slow runs” and continued improvement.

Feitian Moutai raises prices against the trend
Does that mean industry squeeze eases?

In the course of the baijiu industry’s development, the pricing system has always been a core factor supporting stable industry fundamentals and maintaining channel confidence and market vitality. At present, the entire baijiu market is still in a deep adjustment cycle, and terminal pricing pressure is clearly evident.

According to the “2025 China Baijiu Market Mid-Term Research Report,” in the first half of 2025, the two price bands with the most severe price inversion were 800 yuan–1500 yuan and 500 yuan–800 yuan. A reporter from The Daily Economic News’s “Jiangjinjiu” noted that the 500 yuan–800 yuan price band—considered the toughest to survive—is precisely the core stronghold of the second-tier high-end baijiu segment.

Against the backdrop of an overall downward trend in industry prices and downward pressure driven by competition, several leading baijiu companies—including Wuliangye, Xijiu, and Langjiu—have adopted multiple ways to “adjust downward” the ex-factory prices of their core products to ease channel pressure and stabilize market share.

After Moutai launched market-oriented reforms and iMoutai brought Moutai liquor online at parity prices, although its own prices tend to stabilize, the pressure on other high-end baijiu brands has intensified somewhat.

Will Moutai’s upward adjustment of Feitian’s ex-factory price and retail price trigger a chain reaction? On March 31, the reporter, posing as an investor, consulted some leading liquor companies.

A staff member from Wuliangye’s securities department said that the company has only heard about the news so far, but it has not conducted research on the specific impact it may have.

A staff member from Luzhou Laojiao’s securities department said that, at present, the company has not received relevant notifications. Whether Moutai’s price adjustment would affect Laojiao, the company has also not received any evaluations for now. And in the “Record of Investor Relations Activities” released by Luzhou Laojiao on March 27, investor questions— including those concerning Guojiao 1573’s quantity-and-price strategy—were also mentioned. The company stated clearly that, based on the company’s development experience, a mature brand’s pricing system cannot swing with short-term fluctuations from competitors’ products; especially for high-end brands, maintaining strategic resolve is needed in order to safeguard the brand’s long-term vitality.

However, industry insiders generally believe that Moutai’s move will have a mainly positive impact on the industry and other brands.

On the one hand, it boosts market confidence. Although Moutai’s price adjustment this time is highly independent—more a decision made by the company itself based on its own supply-demand situation and market-oriented pricing reform— from the industry perspective, when leading companies adjust prices against the trend at this moment, they are sending a clear message to the market: leading brands still have the ability to regulate supply and demand through market-oriented measures and optimize the pricing system. This signal will help reinforce market confidence.

On the other hand, the squeeze on other brands may be eased. A distributor for another high-end baijiu brand told the reporter that after Moutai raised prices, it further widened the price gap between it and other brands. From the perspective of competition across price bands, it effectively eased the long-term price-band pressure faced by other well-known liquor enterprises, broke the industry’s prior fixed constraints—where people had been afraid to adjust prices and stabilize them—and created favorable conditions for stabilizing the overall price landscape across the high-end baijiu market.

Industry analysis also holds that, as the industry leader, Moutai’s price increase is expected to inject new pricing vitality into the baijiu market that is in a deep adjustment phase. On the one hand, it transmits a positive signal of pricing confidence from leading liquor enterprises to the market, which may prompt other well-known liquor brands to reexamine their own pricing strategies and help the industry shift from past price gaming to value competition. On the other hand, it will also help relieve the widespread anxiety caused by channel price inversion.

The Daily Economic News