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Looking back, I am already middle-aged and have started managing my own investments.
Reaching middle age, this Qingming Festival I returned to my hometown in Changzhou to pay respects to my ancestors. All the way, I kept thinking about my childhood, my years of schooling, and my work experiences, and I’m starting a post here to record my reflections.
I began solving problems in a small-town setting. Through the 985 program, I made it to a top-tier university, and then settled down in Shanghai, one of those first-tier “super cities.” Later I worked there, got married, and life became stable. In the first 10+ years of my professional career, I worked continuously at a commercial bank—in technical roles, then management roles—until I stepped down as branch manager. Not long after, I quit and left the banking industry. The reason is that deep down I don’t like overly high-intensity work tied to hard targets. I often feel anxious about meeting those targets. Also, my body frequently shows red lights—my blood sugar and other numbers, gradually approaching the critical levels amid all the toasts and drinks.
During my school years, a friend kept bringing me along to participate in capital market activities where we discussed things. Later, he founded a top private fund firm in China.
I also followed him to take part in various opportunities, including low-risk chances like closed-end fund arbitrage, IPO subscription arbitrage, and so on. I made money—but none of it was really due to my own ability. I still relied on friends. During full-time employment, my stock investment returns were average. Even though I was profitable, the volatility was quite large. In these past few years, I also took part in quite a few primary-market investment projects. Looking back now, the chances of success for this kind of project aren’t that high, while the risk of loss isn’t small either. After China has moved past the era of dividend tailwinds, doing primary-risk investments again has too low a cost-effectiveness ratio.
Starting in 2023, I decided to invest with middle-to-low risk. I gradually exited primary-market projects and moved my capital into secondary stocks and convertible bonds and other categories. Jituansilu provided an excellent learning platform. Here, I encountered a group of people in the investment field who have built up deep expertise, as well as posts that continued to be shared. Currently, my holdings are mainly Hong Kong dividend stocks, such as China Myth (中国神话), CNOOC, and PetroChina, along with various diversified holdings like property-related stocks such as Huachen and China Merchants Poly. Their annualized dividend yield is in the 5–8% range. Their特色 is steady operations. In the worst case, they can provide 500K in annual interest income—enough to cover expenses such as paying for Hong Kong insurance and activity fees. A-share holdings are volatile assets; for convertible bonds it’s 20%, cyclical stocks 50%, and dividend stocks 30%. Among cyclical stocks, in 2024 I held coal companies including Shenhua and Shanxi Coal. In 2025, the focus is nonferrous metals, including Zijin Mining, Yankuang Xingfu, and Aluminum Corp of China. Starting in 2026, I reduce holdings and buy cyclical stocks in the chemical sector like Wanhua Chemical.
A-shares have the characteristic of very high volatility, and the protection provided by dividends is insufficient. So I don’t dare to hold them for the long term. I can only hold for 1–2 years, and the industry is in a phase of expanding optimism, when the stock price hasn’t yet risen sharply. The goal is a return rate of 10–15%, earning 3–5% in dividends. The dividends can cover basic living expenses. And even if I get a target wrong, it won’t make my confidence completely collapse—at the very least, there’s some dividend income to rely on.
The long-term goal is to start with the simplest high-dividend stocks, then expand my capability circle into cyclical stocks. By holding for a 2-year medium-term period, I want to capture a resonance between industry and stock volatility. Buy at the bottom, lay in wait for the industry to move into a phase of improved conditions, and then gradually take profits and exit.
The medium-term goal is to master the overvaluation and undervaluation cycles in A-shares. In undervaluation phases, buy assets with better cost-effectiveness, such as convertible bonds. Of course, I don’t really understand convertible bonds, so I buy them in a diversified “spread out like a large flatbread” way.
The short-term goal is simply to chase improving sentiment. For industries where I didn’t pre-position earlier, once I discover an industry turnaround and buy on the right side (after the reversal), I chase the rally. This is how I participated in China Merchants Line this year. But my holding period is only between 1–3 months—I don’t dare to hold long term.
That’s it.