The Full Battle of China's Lithium Mining Giants (2025) | Exclusive

Ask AI · How does the strategic split between lithium mining “two champions” affect the industry landscape?

A new round of the lithium mining cycle seems to be slowly getting underway.

According to the financial reports released by China’s “lithium mining two champions,” Tianqi Lithium Industry (002466.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium Industry (002460.SZ), both turned profitable in 2025, with net profits attributable to shareholders of RMB 463 million and RMB 1.61B, respectively. These represent year-on-year increases of 105.85% and 177.77%, respectively.

But if we further break down other key operating data such as revenue and cash flow, it becomes clear that the situation is still not optimistic. For example, in 2025, Tianqi Lithium’s operating revenue fell 20.80% year over year, and judging from its quarterly trend, its revenue has declined for 10 consecutive quarters. In addition, Tianqi Lithium’s gross margin for lithium products in 2025 also dropped 6.62 percentage points year over year to 25.59%, the lowest level in nearly four years.

Ganfeng Lithium’s lithium-industry revenue in 2025 may have grown, but the increase was only 7.16%, and the revenue scale was merely 37.23% of its peak period (in 2022).

In addition, the 24 Industrial Research Institute (TTIR) statistics show that in 2025, Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium’s “blood-making” capacity (net cash flow from operating activities) declined 46.69% and 42.94% year over year, respectively; their overseas revenues also fell 25.07% and 64.32% year over year, respectively.

Everything is a game of industry competition and the forces of the cycle.

From the perspective of global supply-demand balance, different institutions use different statistical definitions when estimating the domestic and overseas demand volumes for battery-grade lithium carbonate in 2025, so their forecast results may not be the same. However, based on year-on-year growth rates, the overall situation has become fairly clear. In 2025, global lithium resource production grew by more than 20% year over year, while demand grew by even more—higher by over 30%—indicating that the pressure from excess supply has been significantly eased.

Looking ahead to 2026, the supply side will see the final peak of concentrated capacity additions in this round. China and Africa projects will still be the main drivers of increased production, while some mines in Australia may resume operations as lithium prices recover. As export conditions for Africa’s lithium resources improve, import volumes are also expected to rebound. On the demand side, growth will be maintained but with structural differentiation: the power-market will be affected by the timing of domestic and overseas policies, so the growth rate is expected to slow, but technological progress and sub-sector developments will still provide support; meanwhile, the energy storage market is expected to become a key growth engine on the demand side, building on its above-expected growth in 2025 and, by leveraging sustained momentum from orders across domestic and overseas markets.

As shown below is the global supply-demand balance chart for resources by Antai Company (安泰科). It expects that in 2026, the lithium fundamental landscape will be “strong on both supply and demand.” The full-year surplus will be about 80k tons; the surplus will narrow, and in 2027 it will officially shift into a shortage state.

Overall, we expect improvements in 2026 battery-grade lithium carbonate demand. If energy storage demand continues to maintain a relatively high growth rate, it could trigger a new round of shortage cycle and drive prices higher again. We expect the 2026 lithium price center of gravity to be RMB 100,000–200,000 per ton, and we will watch for trading opportunities created by stage-by-stage rebounds.

In recent years, amid the trend of accelerating competition and games within the industry, the lithium mining “two champions” have chosen different development paths. Ganfeng Lithium resolutely invested RMB 80k into the lithium battery manufacturing sector and has basically achieved an integrated layout across the “resources, refining, and batteries” lithium industrial chain. Tianqi Lithium has long focused on building a specialized deep layout around upstream lithium resources. Its business now covers key stages across the lithium industrial chain, including the development of hard-rock lithium mine resources, the processing and sales of lithium concentrate, and the production and sales of lithium chemical products.

At present, regardless of total market capitalization, total revenue scale, or profitability, Ganfeng Lithium has already comprehensively outperformed Tianqi Lithium. In 2025, Ganfeng Lithium’s total market capitalization, total operating revenue, and scale net profit were RMB 158.69B, RMB 23.08B, and RMB 1.61B, respectively—1.72 times, 2.23 times, and 3.48 times those of Tianqi Lithium in the same period.

However, in terms of capital strength, employee efficiency, and compensation, Tianqi Lithium still holds an advantage. For example, on the capital side, Tianqi Lithium’s asset-liability ratio in 2025 was only 28.04%, which is 26.19 percentage points lower than Ganfeng Lithium’s. As of year-end, Tianqi Lithium’s net capital value was RMB 3.39B, while Ganfeng Lithium’s was only RMB -7.95B.

Also, according to statistics from the 24 Chao Industrial Research Institute (TTIR), Tianqi Lithium’s revenue per employee and compensation per employee were RMB 2.9981 million and RMB 0.4796 million, respectively—2.50 times and 3.52 times those of Ganfeng Lithium.

To help readers gain a more objective and comprehensive understanding of the true competitiveness and potential risks of the lithium mining “two champions,” the 24 Chao Industrial Research Institute (TTIR) also compiled and compared multiple core indicators between Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium, including their 2025 investment layout and returns, as well as capacity and operating capability, for readers’ reference.

Special note: On the commercial front, and even in industrial competition, there is almost no end. A company’s momentary success or decline is not enough to determine its ultimate outcome. Perhaps, when we observe a company over a longer cycle and across more dimensions, we may see different scenarios and answers. In the future, we will continue to track changes in the core operating strategies and key data of leading companies, and we also welcome readers to exchange views, and even to submit articles.