On April 7th, amid the ongoing escalation of conflicts in Iran and the substantial restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations for a policy shift within the year began to show clear signs of wavering. Federal Reserve officials unusually emphasized unanimously that "inflation takes precedence over employment," indicating that the current policy framework has shifted from the previous "dual mandate balancing" to a unilateral defensive stance in response to supply shocks. Meanwhile, the White House is attempting to use productivity gains brought by AI as a potential reason for rate cuts, which actually reflects internal policy disagreements over the future inflation trajectory rather than genuine easing conditions.

From policy and international responses, the IMF has clearly indicated that the global economy is entering a "high inflation, low growth" phase. The energy supply contraction is no longer limited to oil and gas but is beginning to permeate into fertilizers, transportation, and industrial chains, making inflation more sticky. Even if short-term conflicts cool down, the supply recovery cycle will be extended, implying that inflationary pressures are unlikely to decline quickly, further reinforcing the rationale for central banks to maintain a tightening stance.

Cross-market capital behavior has already begun to reflect this shift. Expectations for rate cuts have been postponed, and service sector prices are rising again, keeping real interest rate expectations high, which suppresses the valuation basis for risk assets. Meanwhile, rising energy prices combined with geopolitical risks resonate, leading capital to favor defensive and cash flow assets over high-volatility risk exposures.

Returning to the structure of the crypto market, BTC still remains within a clear liquidity range. The area around $69,800 forms a high-density zone of short liquidations and passive liquidity accumulation, serving as a typical resistance zone and the main obstacle to recent rebounds; a successful hold here would indicate market willingness to re-engage with risk. Below, between $66,000 and $65,000, liquidity from long liquidations and support accumulates, forming a short-term defense zone. If broken, it could trigger a chain of deleveraging. Currently, the price repeatedly tests the upper boundary but fails to sustain above it, indicating that funds remain cautious amid macro uncertainties, favoring liquidity harvesting within the range rather than pushing for a trend breakout. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战