Will exports in 2026 exceed expectations?

2026-04-07 03:13:07

Abstract generation in progress

The current global economic growth momentum is insufficient, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise, geopolitical conflicts are occurring frequently, the global supply chain is undergoing a profound adjustment, and trade barriers are increasing. Against such a complex and severe external environment, China’s exports have nonetheless continued to show resilience and vitality beyond expectations. In 2025, China’s trade surplus reached $1.19 trillion, making it the first country in history to record a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion. In the first two months of 2026, exports were $11.9k, up 21.8% year over year. Export growth came in above market expectations, accelerating markedly compared with 2025, resulting in a strong start. Will China’s exports in 2026 be able to continue growing beyond expectations?

Three short-term factors driving China’s exports to grow beyond expectations in 2026

Factor one: Turbulence in the external environment has pushed up energy prices and global inflation expectations, stimulating overseas demand for Chinese-made products.

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