CITIC Securities: Continue to emphasize that the leading oil transportation company's profits are expected to reach new highs by 2026

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-07T02:37:08+00:00

CITIC Securities research reports indicate that the US-Iran conflict has heightened consumer countries' focus on "energy security," with tanker assets shifting from "low returns" to "strategic necessity assets." The Strait of Hormuz's transit capacity is crucial; in the short term, supply chain adjustments have led to increased shipping distances, and freight rates from the Gulf of Mexico to China have risen. It is expected that by 2026, leading oil shipping companies' profits may reach new highs.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-07 02:37:08

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CITIC Securities research notes that the outbreak of the Iran–U.S. conflict has greatly increased the demand for “energy security” among major consumer countries, and the asset characteristics of tanker fleet assets have gradually shifted from a “low-return, strong-cycle” profile to “inelastic, strategic assets.” Throughput capacity in the Strait of Hormuz remains a key variable. In the short term, changes in supply-chain routing that bring about longer voyage distances, and the release of volumes from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserves, push the TD22 (Gulf of Mexico–China) freight rate upward. Once the Strait’s throughput capacity partially recovers, replenishment demand is also expected to become a catalyst for the upward cycle. The recent rise in freight rates for Aframax and other vessels is mainly due to a sharp increase in regional trade arbitrage demand. The supply-chain link most impacted by the supply-chain upstream pressure is the bottleneck link, and the bottleneck at that time is mainly the ships. With supply-chain disruptions under a background of restricted Strait passage, a new short-term supply-demand balance has emerged, and freight rates from the U.S. Gulf and the Red Sea to the Far East are expected to be in the range of 150,000–200k. Continue to emphasize that the 2026 profit outlook for the leading oil tanker operators is expected to hit a new high. (First Finance)

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