Has the A-shares market bottomed out in the short term? Here are the strategies from the top ten brokerages.

Caixin Media, April 6: This week, China’s A-shares saw choppy declines. Judging from major broad-based indices, most of the key broad-based A-share indices ended the week lower across the board. The Shanghai 50 Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the CSI 300 fell by relatively smaller amounts, while the ChiNext Index, the STAR 50 Index, and the CSI 500 fell by relatively larger amounts. What will the market do next? Here’s a roundup of the latest strategies from the top ten brokerages.

CITIC Securities: Narrow the allocation, stay committed to China’s strengths in manufacturing

If we look at ETFs, right now, the only ETFs that are still maintaining above the 30-week moving average are those in communications, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, oil and gas, semiconductor materials/equipment, and the like. Basically, these correspond to a few categories such as North America AI, energy/chemicals, and upstream resources. Innovative drugs have returned to above the 30-week moving average after this round of rebound. Their industrial logic is relatively independent, and they have also shown some features of liquidity being relatively “insensitive.” Dividend-style products (such as coal, green power) have also been staying above their trend lines all along. In fact, even if the conflict between the United States and Iran ends, we only need to focus on three issues in the energy/chemicals chain: price transmission along the chain, pricing of resources, and demand for AI hardware—because market funds have already made their choice.

In terms of allocation, we are firmly aligning around the pricing weight of China’s strengths in manufacturing. The recommended current core holdings are industries where China has an advantage in market share, overseas capacity reset costs are high and difficult, and supply elasticity is easily affected by policy. The starting point would be new energy, chemicals, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals. The recent liquidity shock has pushed many products’ valuations back into cheaper territory again. The extreme negative narrative is somewhat similar to the overseas-expansion categories after April 7 last year: it has once again brought a huge gap in expectations and low valuations. On top of the above core holdings, we suggest continuing to increase exposure to undervaluation factor allocations, focusing on insurance, brokerages, and power. In addition, we also flag attention to the innovative drugs sector: its correlation with the liquidity shock is relatively weak, and its industrial logic is still being advanced.

China Merchants Securities: In mid-to-late April, market focus will shift to the high-growth areas in Q1 reports

Looking ahead to April, external risks facing A-shares have not yet been effectively resolved in substance. The United States is currently accelerating military mobilization. As the carrier battle group of the “Bush” completed deployment in mid-April, the possibility of conducting ground operations will increase significantly, creating a risk that the U.S.-Iran conflict could escalate beyond expectations. In this context, further upward pressure on oil prices will exacerbate market concerns about global stagflation and delayed growth recovery. If, in mid-to-late April, the U.S. military launches ground attacks—whether because combat casualties exceed expectations, or because a surge in oil prices triggers a deep pullback in global stock markets—the Trump administration may be forced to shift toward a more calming strategy, and the market may play out a typical predicament-reversal行情.

On the domestic front, after the conclusion of the Two Sessions in March and the release of the “15th Five-Year” plan outline, major investment projects are expected to roll out faster, becoming the core driving force to push domestic investment growth back up. If external shocks lead to a significant rise in economic uncertainty, there are expectations that the end of April political bureau meeting could further add to steady-growth policies.

Taking everything into account, late April will become a key time window for marginal improvement in both domestic and international conditions. Once the external shock fades, in mid-to-late April the market’s focus will shift to the high-growth areas shown in Q1 earnings reports. Based on current data, resource sectors such as non-ferrous metals and petroleum and petrochemicals, as well as new energy, optical communications, and the semiconductor industry chain, are expected to be among the industries with the most striking earnings growth rates.

Industrial Securities: Find high-quality assets that have been “wrongly sold” due to emotional inertia in this round of conflict

We are looking for high-quality assets that have been “wrongly sold” due to emotional inertia in this round of conflict. Our positioning structure is gradually focusing toward directions with clear business-cycle certainty. This is not only the core allocation logic during April’s earnings disclosure period, but also will be the logic shift the market needs to repeatedly reinforce after changes in the pricing environment this year—along with an increase in how much investors should care.

Combining the price moves since March, we screen for high-performing industries that are more affected by the external shock in this round, mainly concentrated in: AI (domestic semiconductor compute for native power, PCB, and the mid-to-lower stream (games, consumer electronics)); advanced manufacturing (new energy, defense/defense industry); cyclical sectors (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, glass, fiberglass); services consumption & new consumption (retail, accessories, pet economy); non-bank financials, and so on.

Haitong Securities: Risk remains imbalanced, especially insufficient pricing for downward revisions to growth

Current pricing: Risk remains imbalanced, especially insufficient pricing for downward revisions to growth

Compared with simply copying historical experience, the difference this time is that the starting point for global demand is lower, the risk of overseas wage and price cycles becoming untethered and inflation losing its anchor is lower, and the necessity for aggressive rate hikes is lower—so the pressure for a deep recession is not that strong. But precisely because the global economy is not robust, compared with the one-year interval between the first and second-stage switches in the late 1970s and the half-year gap in 2022, the timing of global growth being revised downward in this cycle may come earlier, and timing matters more.

The tradable gap: Rebalancing of domestic assets’ internal and external demand

1. Core holding products with strong certainty and the highest consensus: the energy and power chain. 2) The expected gap in internal vs. external demand. Within the domestic-demand chain, increase allocations to parts of essential consumption with low cost and low cyclicality; also, focus on domestic-demand products where trading data improves and where benefits from policy hedging are expected. For external-demand products, avoid those with large exposure to Asia, the Middle East, etc. and weaker pricing power—such as consumer electronics, textile manufacturing, and home appliances (black-and-white appliances, small home appliances). Among midstream capital goods with strong hedging capability, look for opportunities where there is “mispricing” due to the pullback. 3) The main line that is under short-term liquidity pressure but has not changed the medium-term trend: the AI chain and RMB appreciation—pullbacks may provide opportunities to accumulate positions.

Everbright Securities: The A-share market has most likely already found the bottom in the short term; afterward, it will likely focus on rangebound repair

In the short term, the A-share market has most likely already identified the bottom. Going forward, it will likely mainly be about rangebound repair. April is a traditional “decision window” for the A-share market. Two major core events will determine the market’s direction for the medium term:

First, listed companies will disclose annual reports and Q1 reports in a concentrated manner. The market may gradually shift from the prior theme-driven expectation to fundamental-based pricing.

Second, a major meeting convened in late April will set the tone for full-year economic development. The market generally expects that policy will continue the baseline of moderately accommodative monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy. Policies such as the “Eight Measures to Boost Consumption,” and the continued implementation of policies supported by ultra-long special treasury bonds to back the replacement of old items with new ones will keep taking effect.

On allocation, we can structure positioning around the two main themes of “benefiting from high oil prices + earnings certainty.” First, a broad energy theme, including coal, coal-chemical, oil and gas, shipping and port areas—industries that directly benefit from oil price increases—as well as new energy sectors with an energy substitution logic such as photovoltaics, energy storage, wind power, and nuclear power. Second, a high-quality technology theme, focusing on areas like electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), communications, and power equipment (AI power, energy storage)—fields that have strong industry trend support and strong earnings realization capabilities.

Open Source Securities: The time for a left-side layout has come—capture opportunities with ΔG technology + high dividend yields

The “second derivative” of how the war is unfolding has started to show changes. Of course, this still isn’t confirmation on the right side. But from an allocation perspective, left-side signals have already appeared, and we can be somewhat more proactive than before. Still, we need to emphasize: left-side signals are an important timing point in the relative-return game, but right-side signals are the best entry timing for absolute returns. In the short term, the tech names that were most damaged in the earlier period often benefit the most. In the long run, what is truly worth focusing on is ΔG growth. If oil prices and related implied volatility continue to fall afterward, market risk appetite is expected to improve further, and growth will still be one of the directions with the largest repair elasticity.

Investment thesis—left-side layout timing is here; capture opportunities with ΔG technology + high dividend yields

For the next set of actions, we believe: the conflict has not ended, but the worst pricing phase may be behind us. The left side can start to attempt an offensive layout, but it should not be overly aggressive. Meanwhile, technology growth remains the most worth paying attention to.

Allocation thesis:

(1) Growth is still the strongest main line in this cycle, but the investment approach needs to change: ΔG + profit redistribution. Focus on: power capital (power equipment, energy metals), compute capital (storage, semiconductors, robotics, liquid cooling), platform applications (Hong Kong Stock Exchange internet-related), innovative drugs;

(2) We emphasize that high dividend yields in 2026 are better than in 2025—focus on high-dividend stocks that incorporate ΔG. These include: coal, insurance, media, petrochemicals, and transportation;

(3) “Options” after potential downside bottoming in real estate prices: optional consumption driven by balance-sheet stabilization, and a recovery in service consumption (high-end commercial properties, outdoor sports, tourism, hotels, catering, and so on).

Huajin Securities: A-shares may have already seen a bottom in the short term

From the current situation, fundamentals may continue to improve. Overseas risks have been released, and pessimistic sentiment has likely already been priced in sufficiently. Policy is also leaning positive, so A-shares may have already seen a bottom in the short term.

(1) In the short term, the economy and earnings may continue to follow an upward recovery trend. First, the economy may continue to recover in the short term: the manufacturing sector’s business climate may move further upward; additionally, real estate sales may stabilize in the short term, and with an upcoming construction peak season, infrastructure investment may be maintained at a relatively high growth rate. Second, short-term corporate earnings may continue to rise: first, PPI year-on-year growth may continue to recover, and industrial companies’ profit growth may continue to follow a recovery trend; second, with commodity prices staying at high levels and tech hardware demand remaining strong, A-share Q1 earnings growth may continue to be in a recovery cycle.

(2) In the short term, external risk release and pessimistic sentiment may have already been sufficiently reflected, and policy may still remain positive. First, external risk release may already be sufficient: first, the capital market has lower expectations for further escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict; second, in the short term, the probability of reaching an agreement in U.S.-Iran negotiations and ending the conflict still exists. Second, valuation and sentiment adjustments have been fairly comprehensive but are not yet at historically extremely low levels. Third, short-term policy could still be positive.

(3) In the short term, liquidity may remain relatively loose, and stock market funds may partially return.

Industry allocation: In the short term, continue to allocate at lower prices to high-quality technology and some cyclical sectors.

(1) During a bottom range-bound period, high-quality technology and cyclical industries may relatively outperform. First, looking back at history: during bottom range-bound periods, policy support, upward industry trends, and industries with leading earnings growth rankings tend to have relative advantages. Second, based on the current situation, in the short term, sectors such as electronics, communications, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment may be relatively advantaged.

(2) Q1 earnings growth in sectors such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and defense/defense industry may be relatively high. First, Q1 earnings growth for sectors such as steel, computers, media, and defense is projected to be high according to Wind consensus forecasts. Second, industrial enterprise profit growth cumulative YoY for January–February 2026 is relatively high in sectors such as transportation, non-ferrous metals, TMT, and utilities. Third, this year’s Q1 earnings growth in real estate, coal, and national defense and military industry sectors may benefit from low base effects. Fourth, upstream sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals may see improved Q1 business conditions; midstream sectors such as electronics and communications may see improvement in Q1 business conditions.

(3) In the short term, we recommend continuing to allocate at lower prices: first, communications (AI hardware), electronics (semiconductors, AI hardware), electricity-related new energy/industrial electronics (AI power, energy storage), innovative drugs, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, defense/defense industry (commercial space), and other industries with policy and upward industry trends; second, undervalued dividend industries such as coal, power, and banks.

China Galaxy Securities: The market is likely to maintain a range-bound and differentiated pattern, making a trend-based rally difficult

The current U.S.-Iran conflict is hard to see a clear endpoint in April and even throughout the whole second quarter. The flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has already dropped to around 3% of the normal level. Oil prices are oscillating in a high range of 90 to 110 dollars per barrel, which has become the benchmark scenario. The market has essentially priced in the “inflation shock” already, but concerns about the “growth shock”—that is, high oil prices could suppress global demand—are very likely to become the next risk that investors need to watch. Against this backdrop, Hong Kong stocks are in a three-way window period with repeated geopolitical risks, earnings verification in the results season, and a split in capital flows. Overall, the market will very likely maintain a range-bound and differentiated pattern, making it difficult to see a trend-based行情. Investment strategy should shift from the past “a broad-based rise betting on a rebound” to “making money from structures where certainty exists.”

In terms of investment strategy, we should grasp three main lines. First, cyclical sectors: focus on safe-haven assets such as gold and energy, and chemicals with tighter supply (such as methanol and polyethylene). Meanwhile, temporarily hold back from defense/defense industry and key metals that could be extremely volatile. Second, finance and discretionary consumption. In finance, valuations for financials (banks, insurance) are at historical lows (PB around 0.6x), and dividend yields are above 4%, providing a strong margin of safety—making them suitable for core position allocation, though not for chasing higher prices. In discretionary consumption, we recommend selecting auto industry chain targets with strong export performance and earnings that have already been validated, while avoiding individual stocks that have issued profit warnings or where growth has slowed. Third, the technology sector: focus first on AI application-end companies (such as the “token economy”) that have already achieved commercialization and have high earnings realization quality; internet leaders have been adding positions against the trend via Northbound/Southbound capital, and they can serve as defensive core holdings. Upstream hardware such as semiconductors faces concerns about capital expenditures being too high, worries about profitability, and geopolitical risks—so it is suggested to delay a left-side layout and wait for the turning point to become clear.

BOC International Securities: Patience is still needed for short-term positions; keep capacity for long-term positioning

The market has not yet escaped the geopolitical storm period. Patience is still needed for short-term positions, and we should save room for long-term positioning.

In the short term, overseas markets’ risk appetite is continuing to face sustained pressure, and the market may further gradually price in stagflation even to recession expectations. The current situation—competition for control in the Strait of Hormuz and the crisis in the crude oil supply chain—has not yet produced a solution that can be implemented. Market concerns about crude oil supply are still intensifying. As geopolitical uncertainty increases and energy costs rise, it will continue to suppress risk appetite and earnings expectations for developed market equity assets represented by U.S. stocks, further pushing the logic that overseas risk assets priced stagflation will transition toward recession.

Dongwu Securities: Find rebalancing opportunities and adopt a hedge strategy of “broad energy + tech narrow allocation”

The current geopolitical situation has a high level of uncertainty. A balanced allocation approach is more prudent. We recommend hedging with a strategy of “broad energy + tech narrow allocation.”

1, Broad energy: In historical offshore stagflation environments, broad energy has been the best-performing major sector category. In this round, the geopolitical conflict continues to intensify, driving oil prices higher and further catalyzing the logic of “energy substitution.” Focus on areas such as power, coal-chemical, and grid equipment. In addition, in China’s energy transition, we have already built globally leading structural advantages. The new energy sector itself also has strong industrial business-cycle support. Against the backdrop of improved economics on the power generation side and领先储能 battery technology, we should focus on segments such as photovoltaics, energy storage, lithium batteries, wind power, and nuclear power.

2, Tech narrow allocation: In an environment where expectations for the inflation center are rising, tech stocks may see differentiation. That is, names “telling stories” at high levels may face adjustments. But in the mainline, companies with moats, pricing power, and solid earnings—strong industry trend directions—are still expected to run ahead and cross the cycle. At present, in subdivisions of tech where supply-demand contradictions are prominent and where there is support from earnings, there is some allocation value.