Deconstructing the underlying logic of the "golden period" of insurance industry development

■Leng Cuihua

Recently, A-share listed insurers have successively turned in their 2025 operating report cards. Impressive figures highlight the industry’s resilience in development. However, in this year’s first quarter, the A-share insurance sector has continued to face pressure, indicating that the market still has concerns about the future performance of listed insurers.

In fact, the insurance industry is now standing at the starting point of high-quality development. At the 2025 annual performance briefing held recently, leaders of leading insurers such as China Life and China PICC also made forecasts that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period (2026–2030), the insurance industry will enter a “golden period” of development.

In my view, the above forecasts are not an accidental overlap of short-term market tailwinds, but are based on four core underlying logics: the macroeconomy, market demand, policy support, and technological change.

The macroeconomy continues to improve steadily, laying a solid foundation for industry development. China’s economic fundamentals are stable, development has strong resilience, and growth potential is enormous. The outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” has clearly stated that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s high-quality economic and social development should achieve remarkable results, “laying the groundwork for doubling per capita GDP from 2020 to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035.” Long-term, stable growth in the economy not only provides a stable environment for the insurance industry, but will also drive ongoing upgrading of market demand.

Precise policy empowerment, ensuring industry development is protected. The outline of the “15th Five-Year Plan” mentions “insurance” 27 times, placing insurance at the core of building a multi-tiered social security system. On the investment side, regulators have continued to optimize policy guidance, encouraging insurance capital to leverage its “patient capital” advantage, deeply serving the development of new productive forces, and providing support for stable returns on the asset side of insurance capital—beneficial for the high-quality development of the insurance industry.

Continually upgrading demand structure opens up new growth space. At present, China’s GDP per capita has exceeded $13k for 3 consecutive years, and residents’ wealth levels are rising steadily. However, there remains a clear gap in insurance penetration and density compared with developed countries, meaning there is huge room for the release of保障 demand. At the same time, China’s population aging is deepening continuously, and livelihood security demand such as pensions, health, and long-term care continues to grow. Moreover, as residents’ wealth management concepts strengthen, demand for financial products is shifting from single saving toward a dual-core transformation of “protection + wealth value-added.”

Technology empowers and reshapes industry operating models. Data-and-intelligence technologies represented by artificial intelligence are deeply penetrating the entire business lifecycle of insurance operations, driving the industry to achieve cost reduction and efficiency gains as well as model innovation. Technology not only optimizes traditional processes such as pricing, underwriting, and claims, but also expands the scope of insurance customer groups and insurable boundaries, pushing the industry’s operating model from a “product sales-oriented” approach toward a deep transformation into a “risk management + comprehensive services” orientation.

The “golden period” for development has already arrived. Only by proactively taking action and focusing precisely can the insurance industry turn enormous market potential into tangible operating performance.

In my view, insurers should first anchor themselves in national strategies and achieve resonance with the real economy. Insurers can move beyond purely business-operating thinking, find development opportunities within serving national strategies, and realize value enhancement. Of note is that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, China’s modern industrial system will accelerate its construction, and the cultivation and growth of emerging industries and future industries will provide broad space for business expansion in the insurance industry. For example, during the large-scale development of emerging industries such as aerospace and the low-altitude economy, insurance can not only play a risk protection role, but also tap into long-term investment opportunities.

Second, they need to strengthen asset-liability coordination and build a solid bottom line for sound operation. While grasping industry opportunities, insurers must also clearly recognize potential challenges such as the downward shift of the market interest rate’s central level. They should further strengthen asset-liability matching management. On the liability side, they should optimize product structure with value as the core and strictly guard against risks of loss from the spread. On the asset side, they should adhere to the concept of “long-term funds investing long-term,” increase allocations to equities and alternative assets, and improve the stability of long-term returns.

Finally, they should deepen innovation-driven development to release long-term growth momentum. Currently, many insurers have increased technology investment and clearly proposed strategies such as “All in AI” or “AI in All.” In the future, insurers need to deepen the integration of technology with insurance business—using AI to optimize the entire business process, innovate product forms, explore service model innovations, and drive the transformation of risk management from “post-event claims” to “prevention before the event and reduction during the event.” This will allow technology to truly become the core engine of high-quality development in the industry.

Standing at a new starting point and looking ahead to the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, insurers can only achieve a leap from “premium growth” to “value growth” by proactively embracing national development strategies, strengthening asset-liability coordination and management, and deepening the integration of technological innovation with business. They will then be able to contribute more solid financial strength to the pursuit of Chinese-style modernization.

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责任编辑：曹睿潼