#GateSquareAprilPostingChallenge Bearish Bitcoin Market

Facing unexpected resistance, and another Damocles sword hanging over the bulls!

In the crypto world:

1. According to major data from Coinglass, if Bitcoin drops below $65k, the liquidation power of long positions on major CEXs will reach $65k!

If Bitcoin breaks through $68k (liquidated), the total short liquidation capacity will also reach $754 million.

2. On April 6, institutions bought 69k BTC in Q1 2026, while retail investors sold 62k BTC.

In the market:

1. On April 6, ABC News reported: U.S. President Trump stated that if no agreement is reached, he will bomb the entire country of Iran with "almost no" room for negotiation.

2. Iran responded. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghayi said, "Iran's response will be a balanced retaliation."

3. Trump: The conflict with Iran must end within a few days.

4. On April 6, Iran's Fars News reported: After obtaining Iran's permission, 15 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours.

5. On April 6, CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is 1.6%, up from 0.5% last Friday. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June is 1.8%, down from 2.0% last Friday. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 1.5%, up from 0.5% last Friday. Overall, Trump's last ultimatum remains the market's focus.

Market sentiment:

Except for cautious optimism combined with heightened alertness. The upward trend remains unstable, with short positions facing liquidation—beware of black swan events that could liquidate long positions.

Daily chart: On Monday, prices broke above $68k, liquidating short positions. Prices fluctuated repeatedly, with bulls and bears tugging back and forth. Currently, the market sees prices swinging, with candlesticks showing mixed signals, reflecting market responses. Technically, the KDJ indicator shows a bullish crossover with widening divergence, and the 7-day RSI is at 57, indicating slight bullish dominance. However, the gravity center of the K line is at $70k, which has not yet been broken, so a bearish reversal remains highly possible. Additionally, Tuesday marks the end of Trump’s deadline for Iran—beware of price declines that could liquidate long positions again.

Overall, buying activity should not be too aggressive; consider short positions near resistance levels. Focus on situational developments, and risk management is the top priority.

On the upside: initial resistance near $70k; further resistance around the Upper Bollinger Band at approximately 71,663.

On the downside: initial support near the low of April 2 at 64,232; further support around the low of April 2 at 62,400.