Hexun Investment Advisor Zhou Dayong: The Golden Window for Electric Vehicles Going Global in 2026

Hello, everyone, bosses. Today, we’re going to discuss a very weighty industry recap memo. The theme is—Looking at EVs from a global perspective. The core angle of this memo is very unique: it focuses on energy security. In today’s 2026 landscape, what we’re seeing is not just the electrification of cars, but a global energy migration triggered by turbulent geopolitical conditions and fluctuations in oil prices.

The turmoil in the Middle East and the potential rise in oil prices are prompting consumers around the world to rethink the total cost of using gasoline vehicles versus electric vehicles. In this episode, we start from this big-picture perspective to see where the growth potential of new energy vehicles truly lies in a context where awareness of a global energy crisis is steadily intensifying. And how will Chinese automakers’ share in the world be reshaped?

First, we put forward the industry’s biggest core contradiction right now—this is a very interesting contrast. On one side of the contradiction, most countries around the world are highly dependent on oil. Data shows that in the transportation sector, oil consumption accounts for more than 50% in most countries globally, and in some cases even reaches 70%. Especially in Japan, where more than 90% of oil transport relies on the Strait of Hormuz, and in South Korea, where more than 80% depends on it—once geopolitical conflict leads to a spike in oil prices, these countries’ economic lifelines and people’s day-to-day lives will be hit hard. In comparison, because China’s energy planning is more reasonable, the shocks it faces are relatively controllable, which also creates a stable environment for Chinese automakers to go overseas. On the other side, the other part of the contradiction is that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles globally is actually still very low. Besides Europe (where the penetration rate reached 23.4% in 2023 and is expected to rise to 60% by 2030) and a few countries, in most regions around the world the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is only around 10%. This contrast between high dependency and low penetration is the biggest logic we’re discussing today.

With the outbreak of the previous energy crisis, we saw a key phenomenon: in many regions, people started encountering situations where they couldn’t get gas for their cars or where vehicle restrictions were imposed. This directly fuels consumers’ desire for new energy vehicles. This shift from passive acceptance to active choice is turning the global new energy market—from a policy-driven market into a truly demand-driven, just-needed market. According to BloombergNEF (BNEF), by 2026, the global stock of new energy passenger vehicles will exceed 100 million units, and the future growth potential is huge.

To help everyone clearly see this trend, we zoom in from the “surface” of different regions worldwide to the “points” of specific companies. First, let’s do a global status scan—right now, the new energy vehicle rush in various places is extremely striking. We’ll focus on a few key regions:

Southeast Asia is an explosive growth area: the lead volume has increased by 4~5 times, with a quarter-over-quarter growth of 40%~50%. Why? Because this region is extremely sensitive to oil price fluctuations, and the climate conditions are suitable for driving electric vehicles. Oceania has already entered a state of having no gas left to refuel—new energy vehicle lead volume has tripled, and order growth is more than 50%. In South America and the Middle East, although the market base differs, order volumes have still risen by more than 20%. What does this indicate? It shows that China’s overseas expansion of new energy vehicles is no longer a series of scattered attempts, but rather a global “stock-up sweep.”

Next, let’s look at the depth of the technological landscape: who is actually defining the standards for global new energy vehicles? In this wave of overseas expansion, we’ve seen a historical replay similar to the oil crisis of the 1970s that helped Toyota rise. Back then, Toyota opened up global markets with low fuel consumption; today, Chinese automakers are defining a new global standard through extreme overall cost-effectiveness.

Let’s take a look at BYD, Geely, and Leapmotor—these top players have already undergone fundamental changes in their logic. It’s no longer simply selling cars. Instead, by using a technology “dimension reduction” approach, they solve overseas users’ most painful problems—range anxiety driven by the lack of charging convenience—and also the high-oil-price problem. At the same time, they achieve a reshaping of the profitability model. Take the European market as an example: currently, the per-vehicle gross margins for Chinese automakers are actually very high. There’s data showing that some Chinese automakers’ gross margin rates in Europe increased from 8%~18% last year to an expected 24%~25%. This is enough to show that Chinese EVs don’t just sell abroad—they sell at a premium and make real money.

The third key point is that we introduce a critical variable—the “timed bomb” in global energy: oil prices. If current oil prices continue to rise, it will be devastating for regions like Southeast Asia and South Korea, which are highly dependent on energy imports. This will further accelerate those countries’ policy shifts toward new energy.

Looking back at history, each oil crisis has enabled the global rise of an auto giant. This time, within the enormous “cake” of 40 million vehicles in the global market, if the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rises from the current 10% to 30%, that would be a 12 million-unit incremental market. Within this incremental market, Chinese automakers have the opportunity—thanks to their complete industrial chain advantages—to capture 60%~70% of the share. This space is enough to support a group of Chinese automakers to grow into global giants.

Based on the logic above, how should we lay out this track? Let’s organize three core main lines for everyone, and accurately seize the opportunities:

Main line one: the certainty of overseas champions. Focus on companies that have already built complete channels overseas and whose sales data is genuinely growing. When the Southeast Asia and Oceania markets erupt, whoever lays down channels the fastest will control pricing power. For example, Chery Automobile: in the first quarter of 2026, its overseas exports were nearly 400k vehicles, a year-over-year surge of 53.9%. It has already hit over 100k units per month for 11 consecutive months. Also, for another top company, its annual sales target in Southeast Asia was raised—from 300k last year to 500,000~600k this year. This is a clear match between capacity and demand, with extremely high certainty.

Main line two: mixed-power “dimension reduction” through hybridization. Look for players who are leading in hybrid technology. Remember, overseas charging infrastructure is far less developed than in China. China’s vehicle-to-charger ratio is about 2.4:1, while in Europe and the United States the vehicle-to-public-charger ratio is about 15:1. The gap is huge. Hybrid vehicles are the best solution to overseas users’ high-oil-price anxiety. Whoever can make hybrid vehicles cheaper and easier to drive than gasoline vehicles in the same class will be able to capture the overseas market.

Main line three: globalization of key components. As automakers go overseas, the parts must follow. Focus on those core components companies that either build factories overseas together with automakers, or have stable supply capabilities in overseas markets. Especially in the charging pile field: Chinese companies have significant advantages in supply chain, technology, and cost. The overseas price of charging piles with the same power is several times that of China, with outstanding profitability. And overseas charging pile shortages are huge, leaving broad room for growth.

Bosses, after listening to this episode, how do you verify whether this industry is still continuing to trend positively? Please keep a close eye on the following three core indicators—none can be missing:

First, macro indicators: international oil prices and geopolitical news. Oil prices are the “fuel” for EVs. As long as oil prices remain high or continue rising, the logic behind the penetration of new energy vehicles will remain unshakable—this is the underlying driving force of the entire industry.

Second, mid-level indicators: customs export data. Focus on the monthly export volumes of new energy vehicles. If monthly exports can continue to stay above 100k units and the month-over-month growth continues (for example, Chery’s monthly exports exceeding 100k for 11 consecutive months), it indicates that going overseas is not a one-off phenomenon, but a long-term trend.

Third, micro indicators: overseas gross margins and per-vehicle profitability. This is the most critical point: we need to see in the financial reports whether these automakers’ per-vehicle gross margins overseas are increasing. If sales rise but profits don’t, then this model is not sustainable. Only when volume and profit rise together, as is the case now, is it the best “hit” point.

Finally, let’s define this industry’s character. Today’s global new energy market is at a critical inflection point—shifting from being driven by policy to being driven by market just-needed demand. If the past three years were a domestic “involution” battle for Chinese companies, then the next three years will be the golden era for Chinese automakers to harvest market share in global markets.

Referring to Toyota’s increase of 6~7 percentage points in global market share after the oil crisis, we have reason to believe that over the next 2~3 years, the global share of Chinese new energy vehicle companies will also experience a similar leap. For investors, this is not a time to bet against the trend. Instead, follow the main line of overseas expansion and look for high-quality assets that truly have global competitiveness and can earn real money abroad.

(Editor: Zhang Yang HN080)

     【Disclaimer】This article only represents the author’s personal viewpoints and is not related to Hexun. The Hexun website remains neutral regarding the statements and judgment opinions in the text, and does not provide any explicit or implicit guarantee regarding the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of the content included. Readers are advised to use this information for reference only and bear all responsibility themselves. Email: news_center@staff.hexun.com

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