Can Virgin Galactic (SPCE) Stock Finally Lift Off in 2026?

TLDR

• Virgin Galactic has paused commercial spaceflights and is focused on building its next-generation Delta Class spacecraft.
• Test flights are expected to begin in Q3 2026, with commercial service targeted to restart in Q4 2026.
• Revenue remains near zero — just $0.31 million in Q4 2025.
• Free cash flow hit negative $438 million in full-year 2025, though that was an improvement from 2024.
• Wall Street holds a Reduce consensus with an average 12-month price target of $3.45.

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SPCE is currently trading at depressed levels, with Wall Street’s average 12-month target sitting at $3.45.

Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc., SPCE

Virgin Galactic reported just $0.31 million in revenue for Q4 2025. Commercial flights are paused as the company builds its next-generation Delta Class spacecraft.

Full-year 2025 free cash flow came in at negative $438 million. That includes $240 million in operating cash outflows and $198 million in capital expenditures.

The company beat earnings expectations on a per-loss basis in its latest report. But with revenue this small, that’s a thin silver lining.

Delta Class is designed to fly more frequently and at lower operating costs than Virgin Galactic’s previous system. That earlier system generated excitement but never scaled into a workable business.

Management has set a clear timeline. Test flights are penciled in for Q3 2026. A commercial restart, starting with a research mission, is planned for Q4 2026.

For SPCE investors, that timeline is essentially everything right now. Miss it, and the stock faces more pressure. Hit it, and there’s at least a story to tell again.

Cash Burn Is the Elephant in the Room

The company is burning through cash at a serious rate while no revenue-generating flights are happening. Every quarter that passes without Delta Class in the air extends that bridge.

The improvement from 2024 to 2025 in cash usage is encouraging, but the numbers are still large. Virgin Galactic needs to reach a point where flights generate enough income to slow that drain.

There’s no sign of imminent financial crisis in the filings, but runway management will stay under the microscope as 2026 milestones approach.

What Wall Street Is Saying

The analyst consensus on SPCE is Reduce. That breaks down as 1 buy, 3 holds, and 2 sells, according to MarketBeat.

The average 12-month price target is $3.45. That implies some upside from recent levels but reflects how cautious most analysts remain.

The brand still has value. The founder story still draws attention. But neither of those things pays for Delta Class development.

Until there’s real flight data and real revenue, analysts aren’t going to move the needle on their ratings.

Final Thoughts

Virgin Galactic is a binary bet heading into the back half of 2026. Either Delta Class performs and commercial flights restart on schedule, or delays compound and the financial picture gets harder to defend.

The company has a real catalyst on the horizon. Q3 2026 test flights and a Q4 2026 commercial restart represent a genuine shot at changing the narrative.

Wall Street remains cautious with a Reduce consensus and a $3.45 average price target, and SPCE continues to report near-zero revenue.

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