Copper prices break below and lose the 100,000 level; institutions believe that the medium- to long-term fundamentals still support the market.

Since March, the domestic nonferrous metal futures sector has shown a pullback trend from high levels. Among them, Shanghai copper futures have been especially prominent: after a long period of range-bound consolidation, they broke down to the downside. The benchmark contract has slipped below the 100k yuan/ton threshold, and since the beginning of this month it has cumulatively fallen by more than 8%. This is in sharp contrast to the market’s earlier bullish expectations. Industry insiders believe that the core of this copper price adjustment is that the market-driven logic has shifted from being dominated by prior bullish sentiment to being dominated by macro bearish factors, amplified by multiple contributing elements such as inventories running high, the pace of demand recovery, and an escalation of geopolitical conditions. Although in the short term copper prices are affected significantly by macro sentiment and geopolitical developments, over the medium to long term, supported by fundamentals of supply and demand, copper prices still have room to move upward. (China Securities Journal)