Jiang Muyang: Today's Gold and Crude Oil Price Trend Analysis and Trading Recommendations

International Gold:

On April 6, today, after the Easter holiday, the international gold market opened. London spot gold opened lower at $4,652.28 per ounce, then quickly slid to $4,599.7 per ounce during the session, nearly breaking below the key support level at $4,600. After a brief consolidation, it rebounded rapidly. Ahead of the time of writing, gold’s highest rebound has reached $4,671.8 per ounce, with increased intraday volatility. The U.S. added 178k jobs in March nonfarm payrolls, far exceeding expectations of 120k. The unemployment rate was 3.6%, and wages rose 0.4% month over month. The data shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient and inflation is sticky at elevated levels. CME interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a rate cut in June has fallen to below 2%, and the first rate-cut expectation has been pushed back to September, or even December. The U.S. dollar index is holding above 104.85. The 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 4.39%, significantly lifting the cost of holding gold and becoming the biggest drag on gold prices. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the escalation of the Iran-Iraq conflict. The market has some need for safe-haven demand. At the same time, global central banks continue to buy gold. The People’s Bank of China has increased its holdings for 16 consecutive months, providing medium- to long-term fundamental support for gold prices. However, in the short term, the support from geopolitics and central bank gold buying is still unable to offset the negative impact brought by the Federal Reserve’s policy shift.

From a technical perspective, the weekly chart has bottomed out and rebounded. In terms of pattern, there are already signs of a floor forming. The MACD green histogram bars have continued to shrink, and bearish momentum has slowed. With no major negative news in the short term, gold is unlikely to fall sharply again. However, ma5 and ma10 are still forming a bearish dead cross pointing downward, which is still putting some pressure on bulls for now. Gold does not currently have the conditions for a major rally. The expectation is for choppy consolidation and adjustment to correct indicators. Once the candlesticks stand above the mid-Bollinger band and above the ma5 moving average, then it can rise with increased volume. On the daily timeframe, the streak of consecutive bullish days on the daily chart has been interrupted by a large bearish candle. Now the daily chart is closing with consecutive declines below the mid-Bollinger band—clearly, gold has entered a weaker phase again. If this weakness continues, it will definitely test the lower lows again. So if this week is confirmed to be weak, then we should follow the weakness and look for downside. The 4-hour cycle is a choppy range. The Bollinger Bands are tightening, and the moving averages are sticking together. For now, there’s no clear indication of a one-way trend. Resistance caps the upside at 4,800, while support holds the downside at 4,500. As long as this range is not broken, gold will track the market’s sideways fluctuations. Only after breaking the key upper and lower levels should we judge whether a one-way trend can continue, together with the news backdrop. So in my view, this week gold will first trade in a 4,800–4,500 range. As long as that range isn’t broken, you can confidently trade back and forth. After a breakdown or break above, then follow the trend.

Combining the hourly chart trend, at the start of this week gold is also looking for range-bound consolidation. On the upside, near 4,650 and 4,680, there will be clear resistance pressure for the short term. If price breaks through and holds above 4,700, then the market in the first half of the week may be affected by unexpected news. On the start of the week, the downside to watch first is the 4,570–50 area for contention. If that level is lost, then the adjustment pace may accelerate and expand. After taking positions in the morning, you can look to buy the bounce around 38–40. Then near 4,650 and 4,680, attempt short positions in batches. If it holds above 4,700, manually stop-loss. Target is to look down toward around 4,580–50.

International Crude Oil:

At the beginning of last week, crude oil first fell back to around the 10-day line. Then on Thursday, due to statements by Trump, the price surged again and broke through the trendline resistance at 108.5 in one push. The session high was capped near 113.9. Afterwards, although there was a pullback, the decline was limited, and the daily chart closed with a large bullish candle. During the weekend, market news did not improve well, leading to today’s gap higher opening and testing pressure near 115.3. But because there was no definite news catalyst to push further, it then retreated. It has now already filled the gap. Based on the current structure of the daily and hourly charts, the focus for this week for WTI is to hold the bullish effect brought by Thursday’s rally. On the downside, especially pay attention to the contention around 100.5, as well as the 109–108.5 area. If these two levels can hold, then the adjustment will be only technical. Later, if the news brings favorable developments, WTI would still have the possibility to push higher again. On the upside, it could be worth looking again toward around 115, and potentially making a new high near 120. If the 100.5–108.5 area cannot be held, then in the short term WTI could fall into persistent range trading or a structural adjustment in terms of room. But the level of such an adjustment still needs to be considered together with the news situation, so it will be more complex and changeable.

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