I just saw a post from a senior “stock veteran” that I follow, saying it’s been “4 năm” in the circle of friends, and the content read: “Got educated again—this time I really have to leave the circle.” Under it was a bunch of likes to comfort. This scene feels all too familiar—when BTC dropped from $70,000 to $60,000 over the past few days, cries of despair filled the place everywhere.

But what’s interesting is: between $67,000 and $62,000, I saw people buying like crazy. At the same price level, some people are desperately dumping, while others are greedily buying the dip. That’s the true nature of the market.

I think back to 2020, on 12/3: BTC fell from $8,000 to $3,800. Back then, there was also such a feeling of despair. How did those who cut their losses at the bottom feel later when the coin price rose to $69,000? Or in 2018, when BTC dropped to $3,200—even my mom advised me not to touch the crypto market. So what happened in the end? That was the major bottom of the four-year cycle.

The current data is truly terrifying: the RSI has fallen to its lowest level since 2020, and over the past 7 days, an average loss of $8.89 million has been realized. The market is forecasting that BTC could drop to $50,000, even down to $45,000. This uniform pessimism reminds me of a saying: When everyone is looking in the same direction, remember to look back.

I’ve gone over several deep pullbacks in the past and found a rule: the real bottom usually appears when everyone is too afraid to buy. It’s not to say that this is the bottom, but to remind myself to keep independent thinking. The market is always more extreme than you imagine, whether it’s going up or down. Good capital management always matters more than trying to predict the top and bottom. Surviving means you’ve already won half the battle.